Among the many risks in crypto trading, liquidation is often regarded as the number one enemy. But the real danger lies deeper.

The upcoming maturity of the US fiscal bill in 2026 is so large that it could shake global liquidity. This is not an alarmist statement; the numbers are right in front of us: nearly one-third of US Treasury bonds will mature and be reissued between 2025 and 2026. In 2026 alone, the US government will need to refinance at least $4.1 trillion, which is over 30 trillion RMB—equivalent to 125% of China’s annual GDP.

The core issue lies in interest rates. Most of this debt was issued in a zero-interest environment, but now rates have risen above 4%. The direct consequence? Interest costs will double. The US spends nearly one trillion dollars annually just on interest payments, and this figure will continue to grow over the next decade. Meanwhile, the government’s fiscal space is being squeezed—rescue measures, infrastructure, welfare spending—all require funding.

The options before us seem to be threefold: first, raise taxes and squeeze more from taxpayers; second, restart money printing to inject liquidity; third, borrow new debt to pay off old debt, continuing to patch the walls. But regardless of the choice, global capital markets face the risk of being drained of liquidity. All prosperity in the crypto space depends on sufficient liquidity—without active funds, where will counterparties come from? Can token prices sustain?

Historical patterns offer clues. In 2020, the Fed’s massive liquidity injection flooded the market, sparking a bull run in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other mainstream coins. By 2022, the Fed launched an aggressive rate hike cycle, market liquidity dried up, and crypto assets plummeted. This time, the fiscal pressure is even greater, with longer-lasting impacts than the 2022 rate hikes, and it involves unavoidable hard debt—not policy adjustments, but harsh realities that must be faced.

Based on actual observations, three key points are worth noting:

First, high-leverage positions are the first to be liquidated during a liquidity crisis. Meme coins are even more vulnerable—once market sentiment shifts and buyers disappear, there may be no limit-down halt. Reducing leverage and staying away from projects with fuzzy fundamentals are essential to protecting principal.

Second, assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum have clear intrinsic value and broad market recognition, making them relatively resilient during downturns. Projects with real use cases in cross-border payments, decentralized storage, and other niche sectors are also worth watching—they are valued based on genuine demand rather than speculative expectations.

Third, keep sufficient cash reserves. When the market is extremely pessimistic, opportunities often emerge. If a super-downturn occurs in 2026, participants with ample cash will have the resolve to buy at the bottom, rather than being forced to sell in panic.

Market participants’ intuition tells us that this cycle’s complexity exceeds previous ones. It’s not enough to read an article or listen to a single voice to navigate safely; long-term market observation and continuous risk management are essential. The test in 2026 is coming—those who are prepared will survive, while the unprepared will only regret.