I don't have any insider information, nor do I stare at candlestick charts every day, let alone be a gambler all in on a single bet. To be honest, I’ve just mastered probability theory and use this logic to crush risks in the crypto market.

For the group that entered in 2017, I’ve seen too many tragic stories—some got liquidated overnight, others borrowed money to add positions and ended up losing everything. But I chose a more difficult yet more stable path. Over eight years, starting with 8,000 USDT, I’ve grown it to seven figures. The most important thing is that in these five years, my maximum drawdown never exceeded 8%.

Why is that possible? Because I treat trading as a probability game, not gambling.

**Step 1: Consider profits as a firewall**

Every time I open a position, I must set take profit and stop loss—this is not a suggestion, it’s an iron rule. Once my account exceeds 10% profit, I immediately withdraw half and lock it into a cold wallet, while the remaining part continues to roll over. What’s the benefit of doing this? When prices go up, compound interest snowballs; when prices go down, I only lose profits, keeping the principal always safe.

I’ve done this 37 times. The most aggressive one was when I took 180,000 USDT in a week, to the point that even the exchange’s risk control team suspected I was using some cheating tools. Actually, no, I just strictly followed the profit-taking discipline.

**Step 2: Kill the market with multi-timeframe analysis**

Crypto’s volatility is too fast; relying on a single timeframe can easily be fooled by false breakouts. My approach is three-layer confirmation:

First, look at the daily chart for the big direction, then use the 4-hour chart to lock in the range, and finally, use the 15-minute chart for precise entry timing.

For the same coin, I run dual strategies. Breakout for long positions, high-level short positions. Stop loss is controlled within 1.5%, but take profit must be at least 5 times higher. The logic behind this setup is simple—high probability of small wins, but big wins are needed to cover those small losses.

On the day LUNA collapsed, the market was chaotic, both bulls and bears were fighting fiercely. My dual strategies triggered liquidation points that day, and my account surged 42% in a single day. Why? Because I set my stop loss ahead of the liquidation crowd; when they got wiped out, I caught that liquidity wave with my short position.

**Step 3: Treat stop loss as a ticket, take profit as a meal ticket**

My win rate isn’t high—only 38%. But that’s not important. What matters is the risk-reward ratio—on average, profitable trades earn 4.8 times, losing trades only lose 1 time.

What does this mean? Even if I win only three out of ten trades and lose the other seven, my account is still profitable.

When the market is trending, I hold my take profit orders to ride the big moves. When the trend reverses, I cut losses without hesitation and exit. There’s no psychological barrier here because stop loss is just the cost of entry, like buying chips at a casino.

Over a year, I only need to catch two real trend moves, and my returns can beat 99% of financial products.

**Step 4: Capital management is the ultimate secret to high profits**

Many ask me how I’ve never blown up my account. The answer is very boring—I simply don’t give myself the chance to blow up.

I divide my total capital into 10 parts, and each trade uses at most 1 part. I never hold more than 3 positions at once. After two consecutive losses, I stop immediately, calm down for an hour, then decide what to do next.

Every time my account doubles, I take 20% to buy US bonds or gold. The benefit of this is that when a bear market comes, I can still earn passively.

**Reflections on 8 years in crypto**

I’ve seen too many “quick money hunters.” Some win overnight but lose their entire lives. Stories of leverage liquidation, borrowing to lose heavily, family breakups—I’ve heard too many.

But I’ve survived these eight years relying on “slow” strategies. Not that my method is the most efficient, but it’s the most stable. The market doesn’t fear your mistakes; it fears your blow-up. As long as you don’t get liquidated, you always have a chance to turn things around. It sounds like a motivational speech, but in crypto, it’s a matter of life and death.

Want to survive long in the crypto world? Remember this: it’s not about who makes the most money fastest, but who survives the longest.