2026 begins with a major geopolitical event. The United States launched a military operation against Venezuela and arrested the current president, instantly igniting market concerns over supply chain disruptions. However, in terms of actual impact, since global crude oil supply is already in surplus and Venezuela's oil production accounts for only about 1% of the global share, oil price fluctuations have been relatively restrained—rather, safe-haven assets have collectively strengthened.

Gold has become the main player in this wave of market movement, with prices rising back above the $4400 mark. Silver, platinum, and other precious metals are also not to be outdone, collectively rising over 3%. Behind this performance, it reflects investors' concerns about geopolitical tensions and also demonstrates that, amid increasing macro uncertainties, traditional safe-haven assets still hold strong appeal.

From a broader macro perspective, some institutions in their early-year outlooks pointed out that 2026 is a key node for strategic adjustments. Under the backdrop of "double easing" policies and domestic demand stimulation, economic growth is expected to be around 5%. Predictions for the capital markets are more divided—while a bull market in A-shares is expected to continue, the growth rate may slow down; in contrast, commodities, especially copper, aluminum, and other industrial metals, may become the new highlights following last year's performance, resonating with the "antifragile" trend and larger waves.

This market movement highlights a phenomenon for investors: traditional safe-haven assets (precious metals) and bulk commodities (industrial metals) are each telling their own stories. Geopolitical uncertainties have pushed up risk premiums, while changes in economic expectations are redefining the relative attractiveness of different asset classes. For traders, this may be a good time to find a balance point in multi-asset allocation.