Bitcoin has recently experienced a rebound, but from a macro perspective, the altcoin season has not truly arrived yet. To judge the market trend, the key is to observe the performance of the altcoin index on higher timeframes.

The OTHERS index shows a strong reaction in the 190B to 175B range. This zone has served as support on higher timeframes for the past two years. However, from the macro structure of the index, there is a bearish divergence on the monthly chart, and the monthly high has also formed a lower high. These signals indicate that this support will eventually be broken. If Bitcoin can fully develop a bullish divergence on the 3-day chart, then the 240B to 260B range will become an interesting rejection zone on higher timeframes.

What about Total3? It has experienced a strong rebound from the macro zone we have been watching (800B-760B). Currently, the index is gradually approaching 920B, which is the first key macro resistance. Before seeing more evidence, 920B should still be treated as a bearish retest. The index will test the simple moving average on the weekly chart, the weekly supply zone, and the 50 level of the weekly relative strength index. Don’t forget, Total3 also showed a monthly bearish divergence in October, which directly damaged the index’s structure. Therefore, any rebound now should be considered short-term. Only when Bitcoin and the index’s structure begin to recover can we change our outlook.