What Drives Crypto Bull Runs: Bitcoin's Cycle Pattern and the 2024-25 Momentum

Bitcoin’s journey from a niche digital asset to a $1.8 trillion market cap phenomenon reveals a compelling pattern: explosive growth phases followed by harsh corrections. The current crypto bull run in 2024-25, with Bitcoin touching $92.94K, represents the latest chapter in a cyclical story shaped by technological milestones, regulatory breakthroughs, and macroeconomic forces. For anyone watching the cryptocurrency market, understanding what fuels these rallies is essential to anticipating the next wave of opportunity.

The Halving Effect: Supply Scarcity as Growth Engine

At the heart of every major crypto bull run lies a simple economic principle: scarcity drives demand. Bitcoin’s design incorporates a built-in scarcity mechanism called the halving—an event that occurs approximately every four years and cuts mining rewards in half. This predetermined reduction in supply has historically preceded some of Bitcoin’s most explosive price movements.

The numbers tell a striking story. After the 2012 halving, Bitcoin surged 5,200% in the following period. The 2016 halving preceded a 315% rally, while the 2020 halving kicked off an extended bull cycle that saw Bitcoin gain over 700% in less than 18 months. Most recently, April 2024’s halving event contributed to the current rally where Bitcoin has jumped 132% from its January starting point of around $40,000 to above $92,000 by early 2025.

This pattern isn’t coincidental. When mining rewards decline, the rate at which new Bitcoin enters the market slows dramatically. Existing holders sense increased scarcity, and buyers anticipate future price appreciation. The result: a powerful momentum shift that can sustain a multi-year uptrend.

Institutional Gateway: How ETF Approvals Reshape Markets

The landscape for crypto bull runs shifted fundamentally in January 2024 when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved spot Bitcoin ETFs. This regulatory milestone removed a critical barrier to institutional investment—traditional money managers could now offer Bitcoin exposure through familiar, regulated investment vehicles without managing direct custody or navigating complex compliance requirements.

The impact was immediate and substantial. By November 2024, Bitcoin ETF inflows had exceeded $4.5 billion in cumulative flows. These vehicles created a new category of buyers: pension funds, hedge funds, and corporate treasuries that previously viewed cryptocurrency as too operationally complex. Asset managers like BlackRock’s IBIT fund accumulated over 467,000 BTC, with all Bitcoin ETFs combined holding more than 1 billion BTC—a figure that rivals entire nations’ potential holdings.

This institutional participation represents a qualitative shift in the crypto bull run narrative. Where the 2017 rally was fueled by retail FOMO and the 2013 run by early adopters, the 2024-25 cycle draws systematic capital from institutions managing trillions in assets. This structural change has introduced a degree of stability and sophistication previously absent from Bitcoin markets.

From Niche to Necessity: The Inflation Hedge Evolution

Bitcoin’s appeal has transformed across successive bull run cycles. The 2013 rally was driven by Cyprus’s banking crisis—a clear-cut example of Bitcoin’s appeal as a crisis-resistant store of value. The 2017 boom centered on speculation and retail interest. But the 2020-2021 cycle introduced a more durable narrative: Bitcoin as an inflation hedge.

This shift occurred against the backdrop of unprecedented fiscal stimulus and near-zero interest rates. Faced with currency debasement risks, institutional investors and corporations like Tesla and MicroStrategy allocated portions of their balance sheets to Bitcoin. This “digital gold” narrative persists today and remains one of the most compelling frameworks for understanding Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition within a crypto bull run context.

As of early 2025, with macroeconomic uncertainties still present, this inflation-hedge narrative continues to resonate with both institutional and individual investors, providing psychological and fundamental support for Bitcoin prices.

Reading the Market: Technical and On-Chain Signals

Predicting the next crypto bull run requires monitoring multiple data streams simultaneously. Technical analysis provides one lens: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) surging above 70 typically signals strong buying momentum, as witnessed during the 2024 rally. Similarly, Bitcoin’s price crossing above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages has historically marked the transition into bullish trends.

On-chain metrics offer deeper insight into actual investor behavior. Rising wallet activity, increasing stablecoin flows into exchanges, and declining Bitcoin reserves on trading platforms all point toward accumulation by serious buyers. During 2024, stablecoin inflows surged substantially, suggesting investors were preparing to deploy capital into Bitcoin positions. Meanwhile, major corporate buyers continued to reduce circulating supply by moving BTC into long-term storage.

These combined signals—price momentum, moving average breakouts, exchange reserve declines, and wallet activation—aligned remarkably well at the start of 2024, making it possible for vigilant observers to identify the emerging crypto bull run before it fully materialized.

Historical Patterns: Four Generations of Bitcoin Rallies

The Early Believer Era (2013) Bitcoin’s first major bull run saw the asset appreciate 730% in a single year, climbing from $145 in May to $1,200 by December. This explosive move was fueled by early media attention and the Cyprus banking crisis, which highlighted Bitcoin’s potential as a crisis-resistant currency. However, the infrastructure was fragile—the collapse of Mt. Gox exchange in 2014, which had handled 70% of Bitcoin transactions, triggered a 75% decline and multi-year bear market.

The Retail Mania Phase (2017) The 2017 crypto bull run remains iconic, driven by the Initial Coin Offering boom and unprecedented retail participation. Bitcoin rocketed from $1,000 in January to nearly $20,000 by December—a 1,900% explosion. Daily trading volumes exploded from under $200 million to over $15 billion. Yet regulatory concerns, China’s exchange bans, and a lack of market maturity led to an 84% crash by December 2018.

The Institutional Awakening (2020-2021) This cycle differed markedly from predecessors. Bitcoin advanced from $8,000 to $64,000 (a 700% move), but the driver was institutional capital and the “digital gold” narrative. Companies accumulated over 125,000 BTC on their balance sheets, and Bitcoin futures and ETF products proliferated. This brought genuine market infrastructure improvements and attracted significantly more conservative capital.

The Regulated Integration Period (2024-25) The current crypto bull run, enabled by spot ETF approvals and the fourth halving, has pushed Bitcoin from $40,000 to $92.94K—a 132% rally in one year. What distinguishes this cycle is the convergence of three factors: regulatory approval, supply reduction, and institutional systematization. This combination suggests a crypto bull run with greater staying power and less vulnerability to panic selling.

What’s Next: Emerging Factors for Future Rallies

Looking beyond the current cycle, several developments could amplify future crypto bull runs:

Government-Level Adoption: Proposals like the BITCOIN Act of 2024 suggest the U.S. Treasury may eventually acquire up to 1 million BTC as a strategic reserve. Countries like Bhutan (13,000+ BTC holdings) and El Salvador (5,875 BTC) are already positioning themselves. Widespread government adoption would fundamentally alter Bitcoin’s demand picture, treating it as a reserve asset alongside gold.

Network Capability Expansion: Technical upgrades like OP_CAT could enable Bitcoin Layer-2 solutions and DeFi applications, dramatically expanding Bitcoin’s utility beyond store-of-value. This could unlock entirely new demand drivers from developers and traders seeking Bitcoin-based financial services.

Regulatory Clarity: As frameworks solidify globally, Bitcoin becomes less of a speculative frontier asset and more of a regulated institutional holding. This transition, while reducing volatility, creates more consistent demand from compliance-sensitive capital.

Continued Halving Cycles: Bitcoin’s final halving events will reduce new supply even further, potentially reinforcing supply-driven rallies for decades to come.

Positioning for the Next Wave

Successfully navigating a crypto bull run requires preparation across several dimensions:

Education and Analysis: Study past cycles to recognize similar patterns. Understand that halving events, regulatory approvals, and macroeconomic conditions create the conditions for sustained rallies.

Portfolio Strategy: Develop clear investment objectives and risk parameters before entering positions. Diversification across assets and time horizons can cushion volatility.

Security Discipline: Use hardware wallets for long-term holdings, enable multi-factor authentication on exchange accounts, and verify platform security protocols before trusting them with capital.

Trend Monitoring: Track technical indicators, on-chain metrics, regulatory announcements, and macroeconomic data that could signal emerging bull run conditions.

Emotional Discipline: Crypto bull runs reward investors who follow systematic strategies and punish those who chase FOMO. Using stop-loss orders and adhering to predetermined exit strategies helps maintain objectivity.

Tax Planning: Understand local tax implications of cryptocurrency transactions and maintain detailed records to simplify compliance.

The Pattern Repeats, But Never Identically

Bitcoin’s history reveals a consistent cycle: scarcity-driven rallies, regulatory adaptation, infrastructure maturation, followed by corrections that shake out weak hands and reset valuations. Each generation of crypto bull runs has been shaped by unique forces—from early adoption to retail speculation to institutional integration.

The 2024-25 rally represents a maturation milestone. With $4.5 billion in ETF inflows, prices reaching $92.94K, and the fourth halving having just passed, Bitcoin displays the characteristics of a market simultaneously driven by supply constraints and normalized access through familiar investment vehicles.

For the next crypto bull run, whether it arrives in 2025 or beyond, the lesson remains consistent: understand the structural drivers, monitor market signals, prepare systematically, and remain disciplined in execution. Bitcoin’s cyclical nature offers investors repeated opportunities—but only for those prepared to recognize and act on them wisely.