From 2013 to 2026: The Evolution and Patterns of the Bitcoin Crypto Bull Run

Bitcoin, as the largest cryptocurrency asset, has experienced multiple market-shaking cycles since its inception in 2009. Each crypto bull run brings different driving forces and market changes, from the early tech geek frenzy to the retail boom in 2017, and to the massive institutional capital influx in the 2020s. Understanding the intrinsic logic of these cycles is crucial for investors participating in the next cycle.

Core Features of Crypto Bull Runs

What is a Bitcoin bull run? Simply put, it is a period during which prices continue to rise rapidly, usually accompanied by significant increases in trading volume, surging social media buzz, and on-chain activity spikes. This phenomenon is often triggered by key factors such as halving events, regulatory breakthroughs, institutional entry, or macroeconomic changes.

Bitcoin’s bull runs differ from traditional stock markets in their high volatility and exponential profit potential. Tracking technical indicators like RSI, moving averages, observing on-chain data (wallet activity, stablecoin inflows, exchange BTC reserves changes), and macro policy trends are the three main dimensions for judging a bull run.

Halving events are a critical mechanism that triggers crypto bull runs. Approximately every four years, Bitcoin’s mining reward is halved, which constrains supply and historically triggers price increases: a 5200% rise after 2012 halving, 315% after 2016, and 230% after 2020. This pattern was reaffirmed in the 2024 halving.

2013: Bitcoin’s First Major Bull Run

2013 was a watershed year for Bitcoin. Starting in May at around $145, Bitcoin soared to over $1,200 by December, a 730% increase. This rally marked Bitcoin’s emergence from the geek circle, attracting broader attention.

The main drivers of the 2013 bull run included the Cyprus banking crisis, which led investors to seek safe-haven assets, widespread media coverage of Bitcoin’s potential, and the gradual improvement of blockchain infrastructure. But the good times didn’t last—early 2014, the Mt. Gox exchange, which handled about 70% of global Bitcoin transactions, was hacked and eventually collapsed. This event severely damaged market confidence, causing Bitcoin to drop below $300, a 75% decline.

Although this initial crypto bull run ended in a crash, it proved Bitcoin’s resilience and highlighted the fragility of market infrastructure.

2017: Retail Frenzy and ICO Bubble

The 2017 Bitcoin bull run was the most dramatic. Bitcoin climbed from $1,000 at the start of the year to nearly $20,000 by year-end, a 1900% increase. The driving force was the influx of retail investors.

What triggered this frenzy? First, the ICO boom—new projects raised funds by issuing tokens, attracting many new investors who also bought Bitcoin. Second, more user-friendly trading platforms emerged, making it easier for ordinary people to buy Bitcoin. Third, media coverage created a positive feedback loop: rising prices → media reports → FOMO among retail investors → further price increases.

By the end of 2017, Bitcoin’s daily trading volume soared from $200 million at the start of the year to over $15 billion. But regulatory storms followed—regulators worldwide, including the US SEC, began to worry about market manipulation and investor protection, and China outright banned ICOs and domestic crypto exchanges.

The result was a sharp correction in 2018: Bitcoin fell from nearly $20,000 to about $3,200, an 84% decline. While the 2017 bull run established Bitcoin’s mainstream status, it also exposed the market’s speculative nature.

2020-2021: Institutional Adoption and the Digital Gold Narrative

The bull run of 2020-2021 ushered in a new era. This time, the focus shifted from retail to institutional investors. Bitcoin surged from $8,000 in early 2020 to over $64,000 in April 2021, a 700% increase.

What was the background? COVID-19 triggered a global economic crisis, with central banks around the world flooding markets with liquidity, leading to low interest rates and high inflation expectations. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin was repositioned as “digital gold”—a store of value resistant to inflation. This narrative resonated with institutional investors.

Notable publicly listed companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla began holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets. By 2021, these companies held over 125,000 BTC, with institutional inflows surpassing $10 billion. Bitcoin futures and regional ETF products also launched, opening the door for traditional institutions.

However, in July 2021, Bitcoin dropped from $64,000 to $30,000, a 53% decline. Discussions around environmental concerns related to Bitcoin mining intensified, along with regulatory pressures, leading to market adjustments. But this cycle was significant—Bitcoin was no longer a fringe asset but an important player in mainstream finance.

2024-2025: ETF Approvals and Supply Shock

The current crypto bull run is unique, driven by two major catalysts: the US SEC’s approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, and the fourth halving in April 2024.

The significance of spot ETFs cannot be overstated. By November 2024, total inflows into Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $4.5 billion. Subsequent data shows this number continues to grow, surpassing $28 billion, outpacing gold ETFs. Institutional investors are pouring in through familiar ETF channels, pushing Bitcoin from $40,000 at the start of the year to nearly $94,000.

Meanwhile, the 2024 halving further reduces new supply. Companies like MicroStrategy continue to increase their Bitcoin holdings, with on-chain data indicating ongoing accumulation by institutions. Stablecoin inflows to exchanges surge, reflecting strong buying interest.

Adding to this are political factors—some policymakers are beginning to support Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, further boosting market confidence.

Currently, Bitcoin is priced at $92,880 (as of January 2026), setting a new all-time high. This cycle demonstrates a more mature, regulated, and institutionalized market structure.

What Will the Next Crypto Bull Run Look Like?

Looking back, several key trends are emerging:

Potential for government strategic reserves. US Senators proposed the “Bitcoin Act” in 2024, recommending the US Treasury acquire 1 million BTC over five years. Countries like Bhutan and El Salvador have already incorporated Bitcoin into their national reserves. If this trend expands, government demand could become a new catalyst for a bull run.

Imagination for technological upgrades. Re-enabling OP_CAT code could bring layer-2 scaling and DeFi applications to Bitcoin, expanding it from “digital gold” to “digital financial infrastructure.” This would attract a completely different investor base.

More derivatives and entry points. The emergence of more ETFs, trust products, and institutional custody solutions will continue to lower barriers for institutional participation.

Ongoing halving cycles. The next halving is expected around 2028, and historical patterns suggest that halving events often trigger bull runs.

How to Prepare for the Next Crypto Bull Run

Understanding the cycle is just the first step; preparation is equally important. Here are practical tips:

1. Solidify your foundational knowledge

• Study Bitcoin’s technical principles and economic models
• Analyze the drivers and triggers of past bull runs
• Understand the differences in market cycle characteristics

2. Develop a clear investment plan

• Define your risk tolerance and investment horizon
• Avoid putting all funds into Bitcoin; diversify your portfolio
• Set realistic profit targets and stop-loss levels

3. Choose secure and reliable trading platforms

• Opt for platforms with high security, liquidity, and regulatory compliance
• Verify security measures like cold storage and 2FA
• Check the platform’s security history and user reviews

4. Safeguard your assets

• Prefer hardware wallets or custody solutions for long-term holdings
• Enable all available security features (2FA, withdrawal whitelists)
• Never share your private keys with anyone

5. Keep abreast of market developments

• Follow policy updates, regulatory changes, and macroeconomic signals
• Monitor on-chain data and transaction flows
• Participate in community discussions, but beware of false information

6. Build psychological resilience and risk management

• Avoid making irrational decisions driven by FOMO
• Use stop-loss orders for automatic protection
• Keep records of all transactions for tax reporting

7. Understand tax obligations

• Know your local regulations on crypto asset gains
• Keep detailed records of buy/sell times, prices, and amounts
• Consult a professional tax advisor

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin’s crypto bull run cycles reveal an ever-evolving market. From the 2013 geek frenzy to the 2017 retail surge, and to the 2020s institutional recognition, each wave represents an upgrade in participant structure and market maturity.

The current bull run features more institutional participation, better regulatory frameworks, and richer investment tools. All these point toward one direction: Bitcoin is gradually integrating into the global financial system.

But volatility remains. Future bull runs will still bring opportunities and risks. The key is to learn from history, prepare thoroughly, and make rational decisions to find your place in this unique asset cycle.

When will the next bull run arrive? No one can predict precisely. But by paying attention to halving events, ETF inflows, policy signals, and other key indicators, investors can better grasp turning points. The most important thing is to stay committed to learning and remain vigilant.