Bitcoin Bull Run Phases: Understanding Cycles That Shape Crypto Markets

Bitcoin’s journey since 2009 has been defined by distinct phases of explosive growth followed by significant corrections. These bull run phases offer crucial lessons for investors navigating today’s crypto landscape. With BTC currently trading at $93.07K (as of January 2026) and approaching its all-time high of $126.08K, understanding what drives these rallies becomes more important than ever.

Defining Bull Run Phases in Bitcoin’s Evolution

A bull run isn’t simply a price increase—it’s a distinct market phase characterized by sustained momentum, elevated trading volumes exceeding $844M daily, and a fundamental shift in how investors perceive an asset. Bitcoin’s bull run phases typically emerge from specific catalysts: network halvings that reduce supply, regulatory breakthroughs opening institutional access, or macroeconomic events driving adoption.

Each bull run phase has distinctive characteristics. In the accumulation phase, early adopters quietly build positions while prices remain suppressed. The markup phase follows, as institutional interest accelerates and media attention intensifies. Finally, the distribution phase sees euphoric retail buying before the inevitable correction.

Bitcoin’s 700%+ price movement from $8,000 (early 2020) to $64,000 (April 2021) exemplified how multiple bull run phases can unfold within a single cycle—each wave driven by different market participants and catalysts.

The 2013 Bull Run Phase: Bitcoin’s First Mainstream Test

Bitcoin’s earliest bull run phase occurred when the asset was barely known outside tech circles. From May 2013 ($145) to December 2013 ($1,200), a 730% gain caught everyone off guard. This initial phase demonstrated Bitcoin’s ability to capture attention during financial stress—the Cyprus banking crisis that year drove nervous investors toward decentralized alternatives.

However, this bull run phase ended brutally. The Mt. Gox exchange collapse in early 2014, handling roughly 70% of Bitcoin transactions at the time, triggered an 75% drawdown to under $300. This painful correction taught the market a harsh lesson about infrastructure risk—something that would influence all subsequent bull run phases.

The 2017 Phase: When Retail Mania Took Over

The 2017 bull run phases represented something fundamentally different: the arrival of retail investors. Starting from $1,000 in January, Bitcoin climbed to nearly $20,000 by December—a 1,900% rocket ride powered by ICO mania and user-friendly exchange accessibility.

This bull run phase’s character was uniquely speculative. Daily trading volumes exploded from under $200 million to over $15 billion. Social media became a trading indicator. FOMO (fear of missing out) drove unsophisticated investors into positions at the worst possible time.

The correction proved brutal, as expected from such extreme bull run phases: an 84% crash to $3,200 by December 2018. Yet this phase established Bitcoin’s mainstream credibility, proving it could capture the imagination of millions outside the crypto community.

Institutional Money Reshapes Bull Run Phases (2020-2021)

The 2020-2021 bull run phases introduced institutional capital to crypto markets for the first time. Companies like MicroStrategy accumulated over 125,000 BTC, while institutional inflows surpassed $10 billion. This phase differed from predecessors—it wasn’t frenzied speculation but calculated positioning.

Bitcoin climbed from $8,000 to $64,000 in April 2021, then tested lower at $30,000 before rallying again. These multiple bull run phases within the cycle reflected institutional accumulation, periodic profit-taking, and the “digital gold” narrative gaining traction during pandemic-era monetary stimulus.

The COVID-era narrative—Bitcoin as inflation protection—became the bull run phase’s ideological foundation. This created stickiness to institutional portfolios in ways previous bull run phases never achieved.

The ETF-Driven Bull Run Phases of 2024-2025

Current bull run phases are fundamentally different from predecessors. Since U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF approval in January 2024, institutional inflows have exceeded $4.5 billion cumulatively. MicroStrategy, BlackRock (holding 467,000+ BTC through IBIT), and other major players continue adding positions.

Bitcoin’s current phase began at $40,000 in January 2024 and reached over $93,000 by November—a 132% gain structured across multiple bull run phases rather than one explosive move. This reflects the maturation of market structure: better infrastructure reduces flash crashes within each phase.

The April 2024 halving event triggered the supply-shock bull run phase everyone anticipated. By reducing new BTC issuance, halving events have historically preceded substantial appreciation: 5,200% post-2012, 315% post-2016, 230% post-2020.

Current on-chain metrics show continued strength across bull run phases: stablecoin exchange inflows remain elevated, and Bitcoin reserves on exchanges continue declining as institutions accumulate.

Identifying Bull Run Phases: Technical and On-Chain Signals

Successful navigation of bull run phases requires recognizing their progression. Technical indicators like RSI (Relative Strength Index) moving above 70 typically mark the markup phase—exactly what occurred during 2024’s rally.

Moving averages provide phase confirmation: when price crosses above the 200-day moving average, bull run phases usually enter acceleration. The 50-day crossing above the 200-day (the “Golden Cross”) often marks the beginning of substantial bull run phases lasting months.

On-chain metrics reveal which bull run phase you’re in: rising wallet activity signals early accumulation, while surging stablecoin inflows indicate markup-phase buying power. During current bull run phases, entity concentration has increased—fewer wallets hold larger BTC percentages, typical of mature bull run phases.

What Shapes Bull Run Phases Going Forward

Understanding future bull run phases requires recognizing emerging catalysts:

Government Adoption: Senator Cynthia Lummis’s 2024 BITCOIN Act proposal—for the U.S. Treasury to acquire 1 million BTC—signals potential government bull run phases. Bhutan already holds 13,000+ BTC in national reserves; if other nations follow, demand during bull run phases would intensify dramatically.

Technology Upgrades: The potential OP_CAT reintroduction could enable Bitcoin Layer-2 solutions and DeFi applications, fundamentally changing which investors drive bull run phases. Currently, store-of-value narratives dominate bull run phases; technology upgrades could attract yield-seeking capital.

Halving Cycles: The next halving around 2028 will trigger supply-shock bull run phases similar to historical patterns, though current institutional presence may create different phase characteristics.

Regulatory Clarity: Enhanced Bitcoin ETF products and clearer regulatory frameworks reduce uncertainty that previously characterized bull run phases, potentially extending durations and reducing volatility within phases.

Preparing for Future Bull Run Phases

Investors should approach upcoming bull run phases systematically rather than emotionally:

Understand Your Position Within the Phase: Early bull run phases reward long-term holders; late phases reward traders. Honest assessment determines strategy.

Diversify Across Market Cycles: While Bitcoin dominates crypto, holding alternative assets prevents overexposure to any single bull run phase’s reversal.

Use Reliable Infrastructure: Exchange selection matters intensely during volatile bull run phases. Platform security, liquidity, and uptime become critical when trading volume spikes during markup phases. Research exchange features, 2FA protocols, and withdrawal security before bull run phases accelerate.

Employ Risk Management: Stop-loss orders protect against phase reversals. Position sizing matters more in crypto than traditional markets given bull run phase volatility.

Monitor Macroeconomic Context: Interest rate trends, USD strength, and geopolitical events shape which bull run phases emerge and their duration. The 2024-2025 bull run phases benefited from political developments supporting crypto; future phases will depend on similar tailwinds.

Track Regulatory Development: Policy announcements can instantly shift bull run phase momentum. Legislative progress toward Bitcoin reserves or favorable tax treatment could accelerate phases; restrictions could abort them.

The Pattern Behind Bull Run Phases

Bitcoin’s history reveals consistent bull run phases driven by supply constraints (halvings), new investor classes entering markets, and technological/regulatory improvements. Yet each phase manifests differently based on market structure, participant composition, and macroeconomic conditions.

The 2013 bull run phases tested small, fragile infrastructure. The 2017 phases overwhelmed nascent exchanges. The 2021 phases integrated institutional capital. Current 2024-2025 phases blend all these elements—retail enthusiasm, institutional positioning, government interest—creating multi-layered bull run phases with greater staying power than predecessors.

BTC’s current $93.07K price with ATH at $126.08K reflects a market still within bull run phases, though approaching distribution territory. Whether the next phase pushes toward $100K+ depends on sustained institutional flows, halving narratives, and macroeconomic alignment—all factors that have historically defined bull run phases.

For investors, recognizing which phase you’re entering, not just that a rally is occurring, separates successful strategy from emotional reactions. Bitcoin’s next 100x move—if it comes—will unfold across multiple distinguishable bull run phases, each with unique characteristics and opportunities.