As of early January, Pi Coin is in a critical mainnet transition period. This project, with 60 million registered users, currently presents a picture full of potential and uncertainty.

**Numbers Speak**
The current real-time price of Pi is around $0.209, with a total market capitalization of approximately $1.75 billion. It sounds substantial, but the circulating supply is only 838 million coins, with a maximum supply of 10 billion — meaning the majority of tokens are still locked. About 20 million users have completed KYC verification. On the technical side, V23 upgrade has been completed, supporting Linux nodes and smart contract execution, and over 200 applications have been integrated into the ecosystem.

**Upcoming Challenges**
In January, a major event is the token unlock, planned to release about 134 million coins. This is not just a technical move — it tests whether the entire ecosystem can absorb the new liquidity. As the mainnet advances toward the open phase, Pi emphasizes an orderly release to avoid market shocks caused by a sudden influx. Additionally, efforts are underway to push enterprise-level certification (KYB) and real-world payment support, aiming to make this technology practical and usable.

**Potential Risks**
Honestly, Pi currently faces considerable pressure. Market depth is severely lacking, making prices susceptible to manipulation, and it lacks authoritative market pricing like top-tier cryptocurrencies. While the number of dApps is considerable, daily active addresses are only around 180,000, indicating slow user growth. In terms of compliance, they have submitted an EU MiCA application and have related ETPs, but global regulatory attitudes vary widely. Whether the mainnet can smoothly connect with exchanges remains uncertain. Security-wise, the wallet payment request function was temporarily frozen at the end of the year due to scam incidents, but recent upgrades include email 2FA and review mechanisms.

**Two Possible Scenarios**
Optimistic scenario: The mainnet launches smoothly, the application ecosystem matures gradually, and compliance pathways are established — leading to upward movement in liquidity and valuation. Pessimistic scenario: Ecosystem growth stalls, global regulations tighten, and token unlocks cause selling pressure — potentially resulting in long-term low-volatility trading.

Within this month, five key indicators to watch are: the price trend and volatility after unlock, growth in new KYC users and daily active addresses of dApps, the integrity and security of payment function restoration, new developments in international compliance approvals, and the actual progress of ecosystem application deployment.