Why did the Venezuela situation push up BTC? On the surface, it seems counterintuitive, but a moment’s reflection makes it clear.

The crypto market often reacts this way—initial overreaction, then the market begins to think more rationally. BTC initially did fall, but the turning point came with a key change in perception: the US is not just intervening politically, but aiming to control oil supply.

Once this expectation is established, the chain reaction becomes clear. Oil supply becomes integrated into the US system → oil prices continue to be pressured → US inflation further eases → the Federal Reserve’s room to cut interest rates accelerates → long-term downward pressure on the dollar increases. Bitcoin is precisely an asset that benchmarks the dollar’s purchasing power. So, this round of rally isn’t driven by retail emotional spikes, but by disciplined, rhythmic re-pricing—big funds buy in on dips, then re-enter and accumulate, which is entirely an institutional move.

Several details confirm this:

**Institutional funds lead the deployment**. In Q4 2025, many large institutions withdrew due to tax and risk controls, but by early 2026, while the US stock market was still recovering, Bitcoin ETFs had already seen large net inflows. This signals early asset allocation bets.

**Whale sentiment has reversed**. Before crossing the $100,000 mark, large addresses were still selling. Once the price stabilized above key levels, these whales started accumulating again. Their actions confirm the trend.

**Futures market leverage has been cleaned up**. Previously accumulated large short positions triggered chain liquidations during slight upward moves, a structural deleveraging process similar to what happened with silver.

Does this mean the bear market is completely over? Not necessarily to be so definitive. Geopolitical events alone cannot change the trend; they only amplify existing trends. But if oil prices continue to decline, the US dollar index weakens systematically, and ETF funds maintain stable net inflows, Bitcoin is very likely entering the early stage of a new cycle.