Venezuela sits on one of the world's largest proven oil reserves — yet that's become almost meaningless. The real problem? Everything around it is broken.

The infrastructure needed to extract, refine, and export crude is in freefall. Refineries that once hummed along are now rusted shells. Pipelines leak. Equipment hasn't been maintained in years. Meanwhile, political instability makes it impossible for companies to commit capital for the decade-plus recovery timeline that's actually required.

So here's the catch: having the resource isn't the same as being able to produce it. Reserves on paper don't translate to barrels flowing. Even if one thing improves tomorrow, the other doesn't. That's why forecasters keep pushing out recovery timelines. We're talking about a structural problem that plays out over 10-15 years minimum — not quarters.