Copper Price Outlook 2025: Seizing Investment Opportunities Amid the Green Energy Wave

Copper is often referred to as the “Doctor of Copper” because its price fluctuations can truly reflect the state of the global economy. Entering 2025, with accelerating electric vehicle sales and speeding up renewable energy construction, the structural demand for copper remains strong, becoming a focal point.

Recent Trends in Copper Prices

Taiwan Copper Price Trends Align with Global Markets

Looking ahead to Q2 2025, the overall trend for copper prices is upward, though short-term volatility is inevitable:

Consensus and Forecasts from Investment Banks

Several international investment banks have recently issued optimistic outlooks for copper prices:

• Citibank estimates an average of about $9,000 per ton in Q2, rising to $8,800 in three months, mainly benefiting from the US relaxing tariffs, China’s low-price buying surge, and tight US scrap copper inventories.
• Goldman Sachs is even more optimistic, expecting $9,600 within three months, $10,000 in six months, and over $10,700 in twelve months, believing US tariff policies can prevent excess inventories, with monthly consumption of 30-40 thousand tons.
• UBS forecasts an average copper price of $10,500 per ton in 2025, indicating supply tightness over the next 6 to 12 months, potentially creating a gap of over 200,000 tons.
• JPMorgan predicts that in the second half of the year, the US may impose an additional 10-25% tariff on refined copper, with an overall copper price forecast of $10,400.

Factors Influencing Short-term Price Fluctuations

The US “Section 232 investigation” could announce a 25% tariff on copper at any time. Market pre-stocking has already altered arbitrage flows between London and New York, increasing short-term volatility.

Structural Drivers Behind Copper Price Increases

The core reasons for a long-term bullish outlook on copper are supported by the following factors:

Super Demand from Green Energy and Electric Vehicles

An average electric vehicle requires 83 kg of copper. Coupled with wind power, solar facilities, and urban infrastructure upgrades, copper demand is staggering. In 2024, green energy and electric vehicle sectors consumed about 4 million tons of copper, with an additional 700,000 tons expected in 2025.

Steady Infrastructure Momentum in China

New urban renewal projects, high-speed rail network extensions, and 5G infrastructure deployment all heavily consume copper wire and tubing, directly boosting demand.

Limited Supply Growth

Global leading copper producer Codelco expects a 70,000-ton increase in production in 2025 to reach 1.4 million tons, which is limited compared to soaring demand. Protests over mining rights in Peru occur frequently, raising concerns over supply stability.

Key Risks in the Copper Market in 2025

Policy and Geopolitical Variables

US Section 232 results, escalating US-China trade tensions, or China tightening infrastructure budgets could instantly change the supply-demand landscape. Political instability in Chile and Peru, delays in Congo mining projects, all threaten supply at any time.

Macroeconomic Shocks

If the US or global economy enters recession, with declining domestic demand and ESG infrastructure projects paused, copper prices could see significant retracement. The US dollar’s strength or weakness also acts as a switch—appreciating dollar puts downward pressure on copper, while a weakening dollar lifts prices.

Substitution Risks

Currently, copper is irreplaceable in electric vehicles, wind power, and energy storage applications. However, future breakthroughs in lithium batteries, carbon fiber, and other technologies could slow demand growth.

Overview of Copper Investment Methods

For investors with different risk tolerances, there are various ways to participate in the copper market:

Futures Trading

Suitable for experienced investors willing to accept high risk. Mainly conducted on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), with standard contracts of 25,000 pounds, as well as mini (12,500 pounds) and micro contracts (2,500 pounds). Leverage via margin can amplify gains and losses. Physical delivery is required at contract expiry.

Contracts for Difference (CFD)

More suitable for investors seeking flexible trading without physical delivery. Allows for long or short positions, responding flexibly to market fluctuations. Leverage options are available but should be used cautiously. No physical delivery at expiry, ideal for short-term strategies. Compared to futures, CFDs require less margin, have lower minimum trading units, no expiry date, and are traded 24/5.

Copper ETFs and Stocks

Suitable for long-term investors with lower risk appetite. Track copper prices or related indices via ETFs, or directly invest in copper mining companies’ stocks. Freely tradable on stock markets, with high liquidity and easy entry and exit.

Future Outlook and Investment Recommendations for Copper

As the world promotes renewable energy and electric vehicle development, copper demand is expected to continue growing. If alternative energy sources successfully replace traditional fuels, copper prices between 2025-2030 could face further demand-driven increases. However, if power generation costs cannot be effectively reduced, many countries may still rely on fossil fuels, and copper demand may peak near historical levels, causing prices to surge then quickly retreat, oscillating within a range.

Although short-term copper prices are on an upward trend, investors should carefully assess market risks. Chasing highs should be cautious to avoid losses during market reversals. It is recommended to keep an eye on oil prices, as crude oil is a significant cost component in copper production, and its fluctuations will directly impact copper supply-demand dynamics and price volatility.

In the copper market, professional investors typically choose futures trading due to its dual-direction operation and built-in leverage, allowing participation at lower costs. However, futures have expiry dates, which can be challenging for beginners to manage. Therefore, small investors may consider CFDs for flexible copper investment, effectively responding to various market risks.