The recent cryptocurrency market has faced a dual negative impact. On one hand, the Supreme Court has introduced new tax rules for cryptocurrency transactions, which means each transaction will face additional fee pressures—similar to the cumulative effect of rising everyday goods prices. On the other hand, MSCI announced it will remove Bitcoin from its relevant indices on January 15, potentially triggering a collective rebalancing by institutional investors.

Market sentiment has thus been under significant pressure. In the short term, policy uncertainties indeed put stress on traders. But from a deeper perspective, these changes also carry information: How much tax will the government specifically impose? Will MSCI’s delisting decision trigger a chain reaction? The answers to these questions will be key to the subsequent trend.

Several noteworthy points: First, the details of the tariffs are still not fully clear, and the market may face psychological pressure rather than substantial impact. Second, the scale of MSCI’s cryptocurrency-related funds is not large, and its influence may be overestimated. Third, changes in cryptocurrency policies tend to be rapid and frequent, making it easy to fall into passive positions when chasing highs or cutting losses.

From a historical perspective, each policy shock often presents opportunities for rebalancing. The key is to distinguish between short-term noise and long-term trends. The performance of mainstream coins such as Bitcoin, Ripple, Litecoin, and Dogecoin will continue to be influenced by these policy factors, and investors need to closely monitor policy details and market reactions.