Bitcoin's current quote hovers around $92,093, and the market seems to be accumulating momentum for the next halving cycle. Historical patterns tell us that 12 to 18 months after each halving event, explosive growth often occurs — this is not a coincidence but a result of tightening supply and market expectations resonating.

From the current fundamentals, Bitcoin's performance in 2026 is worth looking forward to. A conservative estimate could reach $250,000, and if market sentiment and macroeconomic conditions align well, a $500,000 target is not out of reach. This judgment is not made on a whim; it is supported by several specific logical factors:

The fourth halving will further reduce supply, which is the most direct constraint. Meanwhile, the global inflation trend has not fundamentally reversed, and Bitcoin's narrative as "digital gold" as a store of value still has market support. The maturity of Layer2 technology and the implementation of ecological applications are driving on-chain activity upward — these are the infrastructure foundations for price increases.

Of course, black swan risks always exist, and no one can rule out shocks from uncontrollable factors. However, on-chain data provides some positive signals — the proportion of long-term holders continues to rise, indicating a relatively healthy chip structure, and confidence among large holders and institutions remains.

So the question is: which key price level do you think Bitcoin will break through in 2026?