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As your strategic mentor, first of all, congratulations to the fans who are keeping up with Xiao Zhi's pace. You should have been well-fed during this period. Next, how to layout your strategy, please watch Xiao Zhi's notes carefully.
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#加密市场开年反弹 #ETH走势分析 $ETH ‌
Currently, ETH price is around 3230, at a very delicate "sentiment game point."
1. Deep logical analysis of ETH today (2026.01.06)
1. Structure and Dynamics
* Fake Breakout Risk: 3230-3250 is a key supply zone from previous periods. Although the current price touches this area, the RSI indicator on the 1-hour level shows a clear bearish divergence. This means the price is rising, but momentum is waning.
* Liquidation Map: A large number of short leverage liquidation points are concentrated around 3280. The market is very likely to launch a "final charge" upward to wipe out these shorts, then quickly fall back.
2. Macro Noise Filtering
* The market is digesting recent on-chain data outflows. Although long-term bullish, the short-term funding rate has overheated. This is usually a precursor to "longs killing longs."
2. Current price at 3230: Three No's Principle Audit
* No Against the Trend: The trend here is upward, but it has entered overbought territory. Never open a heavy long position here.
* No Holding the Position: If you open a long here, stop loss must be set at 3180. The space is too large, and the risk-reward ratio is poor.
* No Frequent Trading: If you didn't enter at 3170 just now, entering at 3230 now is a typical "emotional re-entry." Staying silent is the highest level of operation.
3. Today's Levels and Execution Strategies
We don't gamble on the market; we only wait for the market to fall into a trap.
Option A: Capture the "Pullback and Rebound" (Bullish Strategy)
* Logic: The market needs to drop to clear out leveraged longs chasing around 3200 before it can move freely.
* Observation Zone: 3150 - 3180.
* Trigger: When the price falls back to this area and shows a "stop decline signal" with decreasing volume on the 15-minute level.
* Stop Loss (Steel Red Line): 3110 (Break below invalidates the logic).
* Take Profit: 3350.
Option B: High-level Exhaustion "Fake Breakout" (Bearish Strategy)
* Logic: After the price breaks through 3280 to wipe out shorts, it quickly volume-drops and falls back below 3250.
* Trigger: When the price returns to 3230 - 3240, follow up.
* Stop Loss (Steel Red Line): 3285 (Never add against the trend, stop loss if breaking high).
* Take Profit: 3080.
Profit and loss are at your own risk; please refer to your own judgment.