MSCI delays excluding crypto companies, but analysts warn the game is far from over

MSCI’s decision to delay provides a breathing space for digital asset treasury companies (DATCOs) like MicroStrategy, but this is more of a tactical retreat than a strategic victory. According to the latest news, MSCI announced it will not exclude DATCOs in the near term and will maintain the current definition—companies with digital assets exceeding 50% of total assets—continuing to be included in the index. The review has been postponed until February 2026. This decision caused MSTR’s stock price to rise nearly 6% after hours, but market opinions on the true meaning of this “delay” remain divided.

The Triple Implications Behind the Delay

What has investor feedback changed?

MSCI mentioned in its statement that investor feedback indicated some DATCOs are similar to investment funds, which is a key reason for the delay. In other words, MSCI received enough opposition to recognize that outright exclusion might be too abrupt. But this is not a reversal; it simply indicates that more time is needed to redefine the criteria for non-operating asset companies.

What does the delay mean?

According to related analyses, this decision can be understood on three levels:

• Short-term victory but long-term doubts: Companies like Strategy temporarily retain index status and associated liquidity premiums, but this only postpones the problem rather than solves it.
• Broader rectification brewing: TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza suggests this might just be “postponed implementation,” while Benchmark’s Mark Palmer emphasizes that broader issues (such as standard-setting for excluding non-operating companies) remain unresolved.
• February is a critical point: The postponement until February 2026 means the real decision still awaits another month.

Risks facing the DAT ecosystem

Relevant information indicates that if DATCOs are ultimately excluded, the impact on the Bitcoin ecosystem will be multi-dimensional:

• The DAT narrative could collapse; last year’s Bitcoin rallies in Q2 and Q3 were largely driven by DAT buying.
• The coin-stock linkage cycle could stagnate, causing the liquidity premium of MSTR to disappear.
• The market could fall into a vicious cycle of coin-stock price declines, with passive selling pressure and deteriorating liquidity leading to continued drops.

The market’s true attitude towards this decision

The 6% rise in MSTR’s stock price reflects short-term market relief, but analysts’ warnings are more noteworthy. This is not a victory but a buffer period. MSCI needs to conduct broader market consultations before February, indicating they are seriously considering how to set new standards.

For investors, this delay can be used to observe whether MSCI will truly change its stance or is merely preparing for final exclusion. Historically, once regulators raise issues, they rarely give up easily.

Key points to watch next

• The final decision in February: This will be a true watershed; MSCI will announce new standards for DATCOs.
• Attitudes of other indices: Will major indices like Nasdaq 100 follow suit and exclude DATCOs?
• Market liquidity changes: Over the next month, observe whether liquidity for companies related to DATCOs begins to deteriorate.

Summary

MSCI’s delay is a positive signal but far from the endgame. It provides a one-month buffer for companies like Strategy and the entire DAT ecosystem, but the real test remains in February. Analysts’ warnings should be taken seriously—this may only be a tactical retreat rather than a strategic shift. For investors optimistic about the DAT narrative, thorough risk assessment before February is essential.