A recent signal from within the Federal Reserve has directly changed many people's outlook on the 2026 market. Fed official Stephen Miran publicly stated that interest rates may need to be cut by more than 100 basis points next year. This is not just casual talk but a clear stance from a heavyweight who supported a 50 basis point aggressive rate cut at the December meeting.

What does this mean? Let’s first look at the market divergence. Currently, expectations for the rate cut in 2026 have split into three camps: JPMorgan conservatively estimates 25 basis points, Minmetals Securities predicts 50-75 basis points, and Huaxi Securities believes it might actually cut 100 basis points. Miran’s statement undoubtedly provides strong support for the most aggressive camp.

But the underlying logic is even more worth pondering. On one hand, this rapid rate cut hint reflects the Fed possibly preparing in advance for an economic recession. Everything is going well, so why the rush? On the other hand, it could also be a carefully crafted public opinion to pave the way for a "soft landing," giving the market a confidence boost early on to prevent expectations from collapsing.

For crypto investors, what does a rate cut cycle mean? Quite straightforward—massive inflows of cheap funds and abundant liquidity. Historically, during such periods, high-volatility assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum tend to benefit first. But there's a key assumption here: if the rate cut is truly forced due to deteriorating fundamentals, then after the short-term euphoria, the cold wind of recession might blow in.

The macro game for 2026 hasn't started yet, but some players are already laying their cards on the table. The current question is no longer "Will the Fed cut rates?" but rather "How fast and how aggressively will they cut?" This suspense can only be revealed through subsequent statements from the Fed Chair and other officials. Some bet on a continued bull market with a soft landing, while others remain cautious of a recession black swan. What’s your judgment?