The Federal Reserve's independence is facing an unprecedented test. The White House is pressuring for an immediate 1% rate cut, hoping to stimulate the economy by releasing liquidity, but Powell remains committed to "policy independence," and the conflicting stances have become the market's focus.

The root of the problem lies in the US debt dilemma. The $38 trillion national debt is astronomical, having surged by an additional $1 trillion in the past three months, with interest payments alone costing $2 million per minute. This figure is even more alarming than military spending, which is why the government has been seeking a way to cut rates—trying to ease the debt burden through lower interest rates.

The market has already sensed signals of change. CME futures data shows that the probability of a rate cut in March is rapidly increasing. Gold prices have stabilized above $4,300, and Bitcoin has broken through $93,000. These all reflect investors' expectations of loose liquidity.

But there is a stark contradiction: if Powell chooses to cut rates, inflation could resurface; if he insists on not cutting, political pressure will continue to mount, and the risks associated with US Treasuries are also accumulating. Neither path is easy.

Historically, by 2025, 1.66 million people have been liquidated due to over-leverage, with total losses reaching $19.3 billion. This lesson is still fresh. In an environment of such high uncertainty, increasing leverage is playing with fire. A more prudent strategy is to closely monitor the Fed's attitude changes, allocate assets like Bitcoin and gold that have hedging value, strictly control leverage ratios, and don't rely on gambling to turn things around.

If a rate cut cycle truly begins, where will the capital flow ultimately go? Will it flow into Bitcoin or gold? Opportunities and risks coexist in the crypto world, and the key depends on how you respond.