Bitcoin near breaking the "death cross"; see what this means

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: Bitcoin Nears Breaking the “Death Cross”; See What This Means Original Link: The new year started with everything — and with something that, at first, had nothing to do with crypto. When US Delta Force operators removed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from his fortified complex in Caracas on January 3rd, financial markets plunged into chaos. Gold surged above US$ 4,400 per ounce, the S&P 500 rose driven by the tech sector, and Bitcoin — after weeks trapped in a suffocating range — finally broke free.

Today’s price action shows BTC trading at US$ 93,958, up 2.69% on the day. But it’s not the percentage gain that matters here. It’s where this price is: above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) for the first time since October. If the trend persists, Bitcoin could break free from the “death cross” formation that appeared on the charts in November.

This is a major event for traders who have been watching Bitcoin struggle during what should have been a triumphant year under a pro-cryptocurrency Donald Trump administration.

Despite a fairly optimistic first half last year, Bitcoin ended 2025 with a negative performance of 6%. After a 125% increase in 2024, which pushed BTC past US$ 100,000 with force, the market “sold the news” when Trump actually took office. All those policy changes and regulations were already priced in by the end of 2024, and 2025 turned out to be the classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” scenario, leaving crypto investors at a loss while gold and silver had their best years since 1979.

Traditional safe havens have been performing very well, while Bitcoin — the supposed “digital gold” — struggles to stay above US$ 90,000. The geopolitical backdrop has sent mixed signals to markets. With Maduro now detained, oil markets have entered FUD mode (fear, uncertainty, doubt), and investors are rushing into anything that seems like protection against chaos.

But there’s a detail about chaos: it cuts both ways. The same geopolitical uncertainty driving institutional money into gold is also reminding crypto natives why Bitcoin was created. When governments can capture heads of state in night operations and declare they will “administer” entire countries, the idea of an asset that governments cannot easily confiscate or control suddenly looks very attractive again.

Bitcoin Price (BTC): the squeeze finally breaks

Bitcoin has been increasingly compressed over the past few weeks, trading in a narrow range between US$ 85,000 and US$ 90,000. Today, it broke upward, starting the week at US$ 91,498 and soaring to the current price of US$ 93,925, with no upper wicks. Today’s candle is strong, body-only, without wicks, decisively breaking its most important resistance.

For the first time since October, Bitcoin is trading above the 200-day exponential moving average. This is the line that separates a long-term bullish structure from a downward drift. Above it, technically, you are in “uptrend” territory. Below it, you are fighting gravity. The market has been fighting gravity for months. Today is the first day since then that this is not happening.

Exponential moving averages, or EMAs, help traders identify trend direction by tracking the average price of an asset over short, medium, and long-term periods. And here’s the critical point: Bitcoin’s EMA setup is still bearish.

When the short-term EMA (50 days) falls below the long-term EMA (200 days), it indicates that sellers are in control and that the long-term bullish market structure has been broken. Among traders, this is known as a “death cross,” and Bitcoin has been in it since mid-November.

Still, some common technical indicators can bring some optimism: the Average Directional Index (ADX) is at 21.3, showing that the current downtrend is weakening. The ADX measures trend strength regardless of direction, and readings below 25 generally indicate a sideways market, with no clear direction, where false breakouts are common.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures market momentum on a scale from 0 to 100, with readings below 30 indicating oversold conditions and above 70 suggesting overbought. At 65.6, Bitcoin shows buying strength without being overbought. Currently, Bitcoin is at that ideal point where momentum is increasing but has not yet reached exhaustion levels that typically trigger profit-taking.

So, what does all this technical jargon really mean for your portfolio?

It means we are at a turning point. The compression accumulated over the past few weeks has been resolved upward. The 200-day moving average has been reclaimed. If — and this is a big “if” — the market can close a few days above US$ 95,000 with ADX rising, then Bitcoin could escape the death cross formation and set the stage for what is known as a “golden cross.”

This occurs when the 50-day EMA crosses above the 200-day EMA, a pattern traders see as a strong bullish signal for sustained upward trends.