On-chain indicator suggests that the Bitcoin drop in November was the bottom of the current cycle

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: On-chain indicator suggests Bitcoin’s November dip was the bottom of the current cycle Original Link: An on-chain indicator monitored by Glassnode suggests that the sharp correction of Bitcoin recorded at the end of November may have marked the cycle bottom, according to a report from CoinDesk. The metric compares the amount of BTC held by short-term investors who are in profit with those who are in loss, a group that historically reacts more sensitively to price fluctuations.

Glassnode classifies short-term holders as investors who hold Bitcoin for less than 155 days. The ratio between the volume in profit and in loss for this group generates a metric that helps identify moments of capitulation or euphoria in the market.

On November 24th, when Bitcoin retreated to around US$ 80,000, this ratio dropped to 0.013 — one of the lowest levels ever recorded. In practice, the number indicated that almost all recent investors were in loss. Data from Glassnode shows that the seven-day moving average of Bitcoin in profit among short-term holders fell to about 30,000 BTC, while the volume in loss jumped to 2.45 million BTC, the highest level since the collapse of a well-known exchange in November 2022.

BTC may be entering a new phase

Similar episodes occurred in previous cycles. Whenever the indicator reached levels close — as in 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022 — the market was at an important bottom, whether local or the definitive end of a bear cycle.

Since the beginning of 2026, the scenario has started to change. Bitcoin recovered to the US$ 94,000 range, gaining over 7% during this period. As a result, the volume of BTC in loss among short-term investors retreated to 1.9 million BTC, while the amount in profit increased to about 850,000 BTC. The ratio rose to approximately 0.45, signaling a consistent improvement in market conditions.

Historically, more sustained bullish phases tend to develop when this indicator approaches 1 and begins to rise above that level. Market tops usually occur only when the ratio reaches extreme levels, close to 100, reflecting an environment of widespread euphoria among recent investors.