#衍生品市场合约 Friday's $28.5 billion options settlement, as soon as I saw that number I knew the market was about to be "educated" once again. 300,000 BTC options, record-breaking scale, low liquidity, bloodsucking from precious metals—these conditions stacking together create a perfect volatility amplifier.

Having been in this market for so many years, the thing I fear most is this kind of "predictably unpredictable." Options settlement itself is neutral, but the problem is that when all participants know a wave is coming, the market makers are actually most willing to create unexpected volatility at this time. Do you think they will follow your logic? Wrong.

The key point is that this settlement scale is twice that of the same period last year, meaning higher participation and greater conflicts of interest. The liquidity during Christmas holidays is already thin as paper, and suddenly a large amount of settlement volume floods in—extreme volatility in one direction could easily occur.

My simple advice to everyone: don’t leverage up against the trend these two days, and definitely don’t dream of bottom fishing or top escaping. The truly smart people will either hold cash and wait or consider their next move during the calm after the settlement. The volatility in derivatives markets is often used to harvest the gambler’s mentality—don’t let yourself become a casualty of that $28.5 billion.