For Trump, the most important moment may be this Friday.

After Trump’s inauguration, the real test of power pressure is coming.
This Friday (23:00 Beijing time), the U.S. Supreme Court will reach a seemingly procedural but actually extremely critical milestone——
Conference Day.
This is the first time the Supreme Court has directly addressed the legality of Trump’s “global tariffs” at the procedural level,
and it could even become—
the starting point for the Supreme Court to make a substantive judgment on Trump’s global tariff policy.
① The market is already betting: the outcome is not optimistic
On the prediction market #Kalshi ,
“The Supreme Court supports the legality of Trump’s global tariffs” has only about a 30% probability.
In other words:
The market is more inclined to believe that—the Supreme Court will recognize that Trump’s tariffs are illegal for the first time.
This is not a fringe policy; it is the most core economic tool of Trump’s administration.
② Why is this a huge blow to Trump?
Because since 2025, many of Trump’s governing actions have been built on tariffs:
Externally:
Tariffs = Trade pressure + Geopolitical tool
Internally:
Tariffs = Fiscal revenue
👉 including the previously repeatedly mentioned “Universal Basic Income” plan
If the Supreme Court rules:
‍#全球性关税 illegal
or only partially legal, and must be significantly scaled back,
then it means:
Trump’s most important card is directly weakened by the judicial system.
Even if the White House later maintains some tariffs through other legislation or administrative paths,
it will almost certainly no longer be the comprehensive, tough, and freely expandable tariff system it once was.
③ Not necessarily a bad thing for the market
From a macro perspective,
the removal or weakening of tariffs is actually a positive for U.S. inflation:
Imported inflation decreases
Corporate costs ease
Consumer pressure reduces
So you will see a very “divided” outcome:
❌ Major blow to Trump’s personal political capital
✅ Phased positive for inflation and risk assets
This is also why the market has not panicked uniformly.
④ The real focus: it’s not about tariffs, but about “the boundary of power”
What is truly dangerous and important about this event is:
Once the Supreme Court rules Trump’s tariffs illegal for the first time,
the impact is not just on tariffs, but on the boundary of presidential power.
It will send a clear signal:
The president cannot bypass Congress indefinitely and under the guise of “national security,”
to impose systemic economic sanctions globally.
The judicial system still has the capacity to impose substantive constraints on executive power.
For Trump, this is a major political narrative setback.
In one sentence:
This Friday,
is not an ordinary procedural meeting,
but a critical moment whether Trump’s governing power will be “institutionally curtailed” for the first time.
If the outcome is unfavorable,
the policy path and market expectations for the second half of 2025 may have to be rewritten.