Recent statements from Ripple executives have revealed an important signal: the recent upward momentum of XRP is not primarily driven by the legal tug-of-war with the SEC, but by the actual entry speed of institutional investors.

There are several supporting points behind this judgment. First, Ripple has achieved phased progress in its lawsuit with the SEC, laying the foundation for subsequent improvements in the policy environment. Second, from a market perspective, institutional funds have recently increased their focus on sectors like stablecoins and cross-border payments, and XRP happens to be at the core of this sector. Third, the potential advancement of a crypto regulatory framework in the US could create a favorable outlook for projects like Ripple that are relatively compliant.

However, there are also several points to be cautious about. Executive statements often carry an optimistic tone, which is quite normal, but the actual pace of regulatory changes may fall far short of market expectations—SEC policy shifts have never been smooth sailing. Additionally, institutional fund inflows typically occur in two stages: first quietly building positions, then pushing prices higher collectively; this process requires patience. Lastly, market sentiment can be easily impacted by external events. If negative signals about regulation suddenly emerge, retail investors may be the first to flee, causing short-term adjustments.

In simple terms, the current situation is a bit like waiting at a traffic light. When regulatory frameworks are unclear, both institutions and retail investors are on the sidelines; once policy directions are confirmed, a rapid upward movement may follow. The key is when this window will open and how long it will last after opening—these factors remain highly uncertain.