ETH breaks through $3316 will trigger $1.6 billion in short liquidations, currently the price is caught in a risk squeeze.

According to the latest data, ETH is currently facing an interesting asymmetric liquidation scenario. If ETH breaks above $3,316, the cumulative short liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach $1.616 billion; conversely, if it falls below $3,010, the cumulative long liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will be only $754 million. This means the upward liquidation scale is more than twice the downward scale, reflecting a clear dominance of bullish forces in the market.

Comparison of Liquidation Scales: Why Are Bulls Dominant?

What does this asymmetric liquidation structure indicate? Simply put, the market has larger and more concentrated short positions on ETH. Once ETH breaks above the key resistance at $3,316, these short positions will face significant stop-loss triggers, creating a cascading effect. Meanwhile, the liquidation scale on the downside is relatively smaller, implying that although there are many long positions, they are more dispersed.

Sensitive Price Levels

Based on the latest data, ETH is currently priced at $3,148.16, situated between two key levels. Several notable features of this position include:

• About $168 of upward space to reach the trigger point at $3,316
• About $138 of downward space to reach the trigger point at $3,010
• A 2.14% decline in the past 24 hours, but a 5.67% increase over the past 7 days, indicating short-term correction but a medium-term bullish trend
• 24-hour trading volume of $2.3 billion, down 19.43% from the previous day

From a technical perspective, the current price is in a relatively balanced state, but the asymmetric liquidation scale suggests that once the direction is confirmed, the upward breakout could be more explosive.

Market Structure Implications

This difference in liquidation scales reflects the current market sentiment. Although short positions are concentrated, they face greater risk. Once bulls initiate an attack, the stop-losses of shorts will trigger a chain reaction, pushing prices higher. In contrast, although long positions are numerous, they are relatively conservative, and the liquidation pressure on the downside is limited.

Key Focus for Follow-up

Technically, $3,316 has become a significant resistance level. If ETH can break through this level, it will not only trigger $1.6 billion in short liquidations but may also spark a larger upward rally. Conversely, $3,010 is an important support level; the probability of falling below this level is relatively low due to the limited liquidation pressure.

In the context of relatively weak market liquidity (with 24-hour trading volume declining), this asymmetric liquidation structure could lead to more intense price volatility. Investors should remain vigilant around these two key levels.

Summary

ETH is currently facing a typical scenario of asymmetric bullish and bearish forces. The upward liquidation scale of $1.616 billion far exceeds the downward scale of $754 million, reflecting a higher concentration of short positions in the market. The current price at $3,148 is between two key levels. A breakout above $3,316 could amplify the bullish trend through large-scale short stop-loss triggers; meanwhile, the risk of falling below $3,010 is relatively lower. Under this market structure, investors should closely monitor the breakthroughs or breakdowns of these two levels, as they are likely to trigger the next wave of price movement.