There are several macroeconomic drivers worth paying attention to in the market this week.

**How Geopolitical Conflicts Affect Commodity and Asset Prices**

The US-Venezuela situation has recently become a focal point. Although actions by certain policymakers have been high-profile, the disparity in power has actually reduced the likelihood of long-term conflict escalation, so market reactions have not been intense. However, there is a potential turning point—if Venezuela's oil, gold, and rare earth resources can be redeveloped and utilized, it could substantially help the US ease inflation and stabilize economic expectations. This logical chain is worth continuing to monitor.

**How the Federal Reserve Chair Nominee Will Influence Policy Direction**

Trump is expected to announce the new chair candidate in early January. According to the latest polls, Haskett leads in support (about 41%), with Waller close behind (about 37%). Regardless of who ultimately takes the position, the market has already reached a consensus—the new chair must adapt to Trump's "rapid easing" policy framework. This is a clear positive signal for risk assets and will continue to support market sentiment.

**Why Are Rate Cut Expectations Adjusting?**

Federal funds futures show that the probability of no rate cut in the first quarter of 2026 is increasing. On one hand, this is due to uncertainty during the leadership transition; on the other hand, there are significant disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding policy direction. If Friday's non-farm payroll data performs well and the unemployment rate remains low, it will further reinforce market expectations of a delayed rate cut. In this environment, liquidity-driven factors will become more important than fundamentals.