2026-01-09 21:36:41

What's your take on Bitcoin's bottom in the next bear market? We've seen brutal corrections across multiple cycles—some analysts point to previous support levels, others factor in macro conditions and institutional adoption trends. The big question isn't just where it lands, but what fundamentals might actually catch it. Where do you reckon support forms?

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DefiPlaybook

· 3h ago

According to on-chain data, the formation mechanism of BTC's previous bear market bottoms is undergoing a qualitative change—institutional holdings have increased from 8% in 2017 to approximately 34% currently, which means that purely technical support is no longer sufficient to explain future bottom formations. It is worth noting that the correlation coefficient between macro liquidity environment (M2 year-over-year growth rate, US bond yields) and on-chain liquidation data has reached 0.87. It is recommended to analyze predictions from these three dimensions: first, historical support levels have become "psychological prices"; second, the average cost basis of institutions is the real support line; third, the speed of TVL collapse in smart contract protocols often leads bottom formation by 2-3 weeks. Based on recent 120-day derivatives data, abnormal fluctuations in open interest contracts usually indicate that the bottom is near.

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SchrodingerWallet

· 11h ago

Honestly, bottom prediction is just nonsense... Last time, a certain analyst said 15k was the solid bottom, and what happened? It continued to fall. Instead of guessing the bottom, it's better to watch the actual positions of institutions—that's the real gold and silver.

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ArbitrageBot

· 11h ago

To be honest, I think this time is different... The institutional buying pressure is there, if 15k can't hold, it's game over.

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SignatureVerifier

· 12h ago

tbh the "fundamentals catch it" framing is kinda cute... technically speaking, most support level predictions haven't undergone sufficient validation across different macro regimes. everyone's just pattern matching previous cycles without auditing their assumptions, ngl.

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ProbablyNothing

· 12h ago

ngl Bitcoin bottoming out is too hard to predict, as the macro environment is changing so quickly... When institutions are dumping, no one can really save it.

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QuietlyStaking

· 12h ago

Nah, to be honest, I think it's more far-fetched to look at the fundamentals than to look at technical support this time. Have institutions really entered the market?

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SchrodingerGas

· 12h ago

To be honest, on-chain data is the true witness; all those support levels, macro analyses... are less honest than looking at the whale wallet's UTXO age distribution.

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