#美国贸易赤字状况 JPMorgan's latest research report offers a key insight: the end-of-year deleveraging wave in the crypto market is nearing its conclusion.

Over the past quarter, the outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs have been quite alarming, but starting from January 2026, this selling momentum has clearly been tapering off. Perpetual futures and CME futures position indicators also show that the previous quarter's de-risking operations are essentially complete. Most importantly, in the February MSCI index review, it was decided to temporarily exclude crypto-related companies from the global stock indices, which is a significant positive signal for market sentiment.

Interestingly, while many are calling for worsening liquidity, the report points out that the market breadth of CME and mainstream ETFs remains normal. The real root cause was last October's MSCI exclusion anticipation, which scared institutional investors into reducing their positions early. Now, this adjustment phase is almost over.

In simple terms, the market has shifted from a correction phase into a bottoming consolidation, not the start of a crash. Those panic-selling at the end of the year are actually providing a cheap entry point for institutions to accumulate at the bottom. In Q1 2026, various indicators are signaling a rebound — the second phase of the institutional bull market is just beginning to heat up. The future trajectory will depend on macroeconomic conditions, policy guidance, and when capital truly starts to flow back in.