December ADP growth in the forecast fire: institutions diverge in expectations

Today’s release of the US employment figures at 21:15 indicates a mixed picture among institutional expectations. While the ADP employment growth for December is being analyzed by various market participants, forecasts show a considerable range.

The background: Previous December data was negatively surprising with a decline of 32,000 jobs. Now, expectations seem to be shifting – most projected scenarios point to a recovery.

Forecast Overview: From Conservative to Optimistic

Predictions span a broad spectrum. At the lower end, Spartan Securities expects 16,000 new jobs created. Significantly more bullish is Mizuho Bank with a forecast of 80,000 – a substantially higher expectation for employment growth.

In the middle range are two prominent financial institutions: Deutsche Bank expects 50,000 jobs, while Goldman Sachs forecasts 55,000. The most optimistic is Helaba, which anticipates 75,000 new jobs.

What does this divergence mean?

The range between the lowest (16,000) and the highest forecast (80,000) suggests that the December labor market is difficult for analysts to assess. These differing scenarios reflect uncertainty – a classic sign of potentially volatile market activity.