The freshly released US December CPI data has given the market a reassuring boost. The overall CPI year-on-year was 2.7%, in line with expectations, but the core CPI year-on-year was 2.6%, 0.1 percentage points below expectations, signaling a clear cooling of inflation. The market immediately responded—Bitcoin was quoted at $96,495 in the morning of January 14, up 5.9% over 24 hours, Ethereum surged to $3,300, with an 8% increase in 24 hours.

Let's take a closer look at the specific data breakdown. The US December overall CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, both in line with expectations. The core CPI (excluding volatile food and energy prices) rose 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3%; and 2.6% year-on-year, also below the expected 2.7%. This indicates that inflation is truly cooling down. In terms of components, housing continued to rise by 0.4%, food by 0.7%, energy by 0.3%, but used car and truck prices declined, easing overall pressure.

The market's reaction to the rate cut expectations was very direct—probability of a rate cut in April increased from previous levels to 42%, and expectations for a June rate cut also strengthened. This boosted the appeal of risk assets, with institutional buying beginning to increase, and Bitcoin regaining the key level of 93,000.

In the short term, Bitcoin is maintaining a bullish stance supported by the 92,000 level, with resistance between 94,000 and 95,000, and a breakout targeting 96,000. Ethereum needs to watch for a break above 3,150. Mid-term, the CPI data reinforces the rate cut logic, increasing the probability of sideways upward movement. Consider deploying in batches within the 90,000-92,000 BTC range, with a stop loss at 88,000.

But don’t forget the risks. The Federal Reserve meeting on January 27-28, changes in ETF capital flows, and regulatory developments could disrupt the rhythm. Leverage should be controlled well; chasing highs is still not advisable.