Bitcoin prediction markets seem to have a serious credibility problem. Watch the odds swinging wildly between 100K and 60K—sometimes a mere 1-2% price move triggers massive shifts. Here's the thing: it's often the same retail traders making high-leverage BTC bets on spot markets who are simultaneously driving these prediction market fluctuations. The two groups aren't that different, really. Both are essentially guessing rather than making informed decisions. When you've got that much money riding on thin technicals, it creates this distorted feedback loop where speculation feeds back into itself. Not exactly the foundation you'd want for a prediction market meant to reflect genuine market conviction.