#密码资产动态追踪 The Truth Behind the Data

The US December CPI data just came out and caused some trouble. On the surface, year-over-year growth of 2.7% and a rebound to 0.3% month-over-month seem to indicate everything is proceeding as expected. But economists are not convinced—these numbers are too "clean," and there may be statistical flaws hidden behind them caused by the government shutdown.

Data released on January 13 Beijing time shows that core CPI also recorded a 2.7% year-over-year increase. Behind this seemingly stable figure lies a more thorny issue: inflation is still inflation, and it’s not as gentle as it appears. Economists openly state that these figures are likely the statistical correction effects after the government shutdown in November have faded, and the real inflation situation is returning to the normal state of "above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target"—in other words, the official data may be "dressed up" too nicely.

This directly shatters the market’s hopes for a Fed rate cut. The Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at the January meeting has almost become a certainty. However, asset markets are reacting differently. Gold initially fell then rose, now holding firm at the historic high of $4,600, driven mainly by safe-haven demand amid policy risks and persistent central bank gold purchases; US stock futures remain resilient, with investors shifting focus from inflation concerns to earnings season, as the AI industry chain supports tech stocks, and mild inflation is actually good news for cyclical sectors; the US dollar index has slightly rebounded to the 98-99 level, with the interest rate differential still supporting the exchange rate in the short term, but Trump’s intervention in Fed policies has planted a credit minefield for the dollar’s long-term trend.

In short, this seemingly "meeting the standard" CPI data actually exposes the stubbornness of US inflation. How much economic reality is masked by the data revisions after the government shutdown? This is a question worth pondering.

What do you think—how much water is really in this CPI data? Can gold continue to break through $4,600 relying on safe-haven sentiment?