Here's an interesting angle worth considering:

Prediction markets might be fundamentally reshaping how efficiently capital markets process information. By enabling real-time, crowdsourced assessment of news events and their probability impacts, these markets could be accelerating price discovery across traditional finance.

The ripple effect? If information flows faster and more accurately through prediction markets, it structurally dampens the volatility bands we've historically accepted as normal in equity markets. The VIX—that measure of expected market turbulence—could be trending toward a persistently lower baseline as these mechanisms mature.

It's less about sudden shocks disappearing and more about the market's collective ability to price in risk faster. When uncertainty gets resolved quicker through better data aggregation, you naturally see tighter volatility ranges. Worth watching as prediction markets scale.