Bernstein selects the "Best Choice" for 2026, with Figure Technology's potential increase reaching 38%

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: Bernstein says which stock is the “best idea” for 2026, with a potential appreciation of 38% Original Link: https://portaldobitcoin.uol.com.br/bernstein-diz-qual-acao-e-a-melhor-ideia-para-2026-com-potencial-de-valorizacao-de-38/ Bernstein raised the target price for Figure Technology Solutions shares and began treating them as the “best idea” for 2026, seeing a potential appreciation of about 38% compared to current quotes. The house increased the target from US$ 54 to US$ 72 and reiterated the buy recommendation, citing faster-than-expected growth in the tokenized credit market and increasing operational leverage gains.

The new target price is based on Monday’s closing of US$ 52.23 and reflects, according to analysts, an execution that has been surpassing expectations that were already considered optimistic since coverage began in October. Founded by Mike Cagney, co-founder of SoFi, Figure went public on Nasdaq in September last year and has established itself as one of the largest independent originators of non-bank mortgage lines in the United States.

In a report signed by analysts led by Gautam Chhugani, Bernstein argues that Figure is well positioned to benefit from the ongoing disruption in the traditional banking sector and a clearer regulatory environment for crypto assets in the US, highlighting the Clarity Act proposal, which aims to structure the cryptocurrency market in the country.

In the house’s view, the company differentiates itself by replacing legacy banking systems with blockchain-based infrastructure, creating a model where tokenized assets and credits can generate efficiency and value in the long term.

Recent numbers support this outlook. In the fourth quarter, the total volume of Figure’s consumer credit marketplace reached about US$ 2.7 billion, mainly driven by Figure Connect, its tokenized credit marketplace, which accounted for approximately 46% of the volume processed in the previous quarter. For Bernstein, the marketplace model, based on partnerships and requiring less equity capital, is one of the main drivers of the company’s expansion.

In addition to its core business of mortgage-backed credit lines, Figure has been expanding into new areas, which also positively influences the analysis. The company has started offering products such as loans based on debt service coverage ratios, small business credit, and loans backed by cryptocurrencies.

Another element observed by analysts is the plan to tokenize its own shares in a future secondary market offering, a move seen less as an immediate revenue generator and more as a strategic long-term “optionality.”

Product Combination

Bernstein also highlighted the rapid growth of complementary products to the marketplace. The company’s yield-bearing stablecoin, YLDS, jumped from about US$ 21 million to approximately US$ 328 million in circulation during the quarter, after integrations with Solana. Meanwhile, the Democratized Prime loan marketplace expanded its outstanding volume to about US$ 206 million in the fourth quarter, compared to approximately US$ 1 million in the previous quarter, demonstrating the platform’s rapid traction.

From a financial perspective, Bernstein projects that Figure’s net revenue will grow from about US$ 511 million in 2025 to US$ 945 million in 2027. In the same period, adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to increase from around 50% to 60%, as the low-capital marketplace model expands. The brokerage estimates that by 2027, new loan categories will account for about 20% of origination volume, while Figure Connect should account for approximately 60% of the total processed.

The target price of US$ 72 is based on a combined valuation of about 25 times the EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) projected for 2027 and approximately 40 times the profits of the same year. While recognizing risks associated with the macroeconomic scenario and the pace of expansion into products beyond mortgage lines, Bernstein believes that Figure is well positioned to capture the growing demand for blockchain-based credit infrastructure throughout 2026 and the following years, justifying its choice as the “best idea” among the stocks followed by the house.