The hidden concerns behind BERA's 28% surge: ecological decline and the dual risks of technical overbought

BERA (Berachain) surged 28.30% in the past 24 hours, currently trading at $0.71, with a high of $0.80, and trading activity significantly heating up. However, behind this rally, several issues warrant attention: a severe decline in the ecosystem’s fundamentals, extreme overbought technical indicators, and the upcoming investor refund risk in February.

Market Realities Behind the Rally

According to the latest news, this surge in BERA is mainly reflected in trading volume. The 24-hour trading volume reached $66.1 million, with a market cap of approximately $99 million, up $21.8 million from yesterday. From a technical perspective, the price increased by 14.90% within an hour, but this rapid rise also signals obvious overheating.

Technical indicators flashing warning lights

Technical analysis shows that BERA is extremely overbought across multiple timeframes:

• 15 minutes: RSI at 94.4, in the severe overbought zone
• 1 hour: RSI at 90.6, MACD histogram still expanding but with volume shrinking by 35.9%
• 4 hours: RSI at 83.7, strong overall trend but entering overbought territory

These indicators generally indicate overheated market sentiment, which could face a correction at any time. Based on technical analysis, the current price is in a strong zone around $0.73, but there are clear resistance levels below $0.70 and above $0.75.

Deep Concerns About Ecosystem Fundamentals

What’s more worrying is the true state of the BERA ecosystem. According to relevant information, the project faces a serious disconnect between marketing hype and actual application:

• TVL has plummeted: Total Value Locked dropped from $3 billion to about $184 million, a decline of over 93%
• Minimal revenue: Daily income only a few thousand dollars, insufficient to support long-term ecosystem development
• Application hollowing: Berachain conducted large-scale marketing during Token2049, attracting broad attention, but actual protocol usage and user demand have not kept pace

This phenomenon reflects a reality: marketing investment and market hype alone cannot sustain long-term value. Genuine ecosystem prosperity requires products based on real use cases. The core challenge for BERA now is how to convert initial market enthusiasm into sustainable protocol applications.

The Upcoming “February Refund Clause” Risk

The market also needs to be aware of a time-sensitive risk factor. According to reports, early investor Brevan Howard Digital holds a $25 million refund right, which may be exercised in February 2026. If BERA’s price performs poorly, this potential sell-off could pose a significant threat to the token price.

This risk factor partly explains why community sentiment has recently turned cautious. Once the February refund clause is triggered, it could trigger a new wave of selling pressure.

Rational Short-term Outlook

From the current situation, BERA’s rise is more driven by short-term sentiment rather than fundamental improvements. With technical indicators extremely overbought, ecosystem issues unresolved, and risk factors pending release, it may be more rational to wait and see or wait for a correction back to around $0.70 before considering entry.

My personal view is that the risk of chasing the high outweighs the potential gains. If a volume breakout above $0.75 occurs, it could be considered for a follow-up; but if it falls below $0.70 support, a timely stop-loss is advisable.

Summary

BERA’s 28.30% increase certainly draws attention, but this is only superficial. The ecosystem’s TVL has sharply declined, daily revenue remains minimal, technical indicators are extremely overbought, and the February refund risk is looming. All these factors point to one conclusion: the current rally lacks fundamental support and faces significant short-term correction pressure. Investors should balance between price enthusiasm and ecosystem fundamentals, avoiding being misled by mere price gains. Monitoring the risk release in February and whether the ecosystem TVL can rebound will be crucial in determining BERA’s medium-term trajectory.