VanEck states that the most reliable Bitcoin price pattern has just failed and that timing signals are no longer reliable.

Source: Yellow Original Title: VanEck affirms that Bitcoin’s most reliable price pattern has just failed and that timing signals are no longer trustworthy

Original Link: VanEck affirms that the four-year long market cycle of Bitcoin (BTC), observed over the years, may have broken in 2025, a change that could complicate traditional crypto market signals heading into 2026 and force investors to rethink how they interpret timing, risk, and positioning in digital assets.

In its outlook for the first quarter of 2026, the asset manager noted that Bitcoin’s price behavior last year deviated from the historical post-halving patterns that have typically guided market expectations.

VanEck said that this break makes short-term directional signals less reliable, even as the long-term thesis for cryptocurrencies remains intact.

“The traditional four-year cycle of Bitcoin broke in 2025,” said VanEck, adding that this divergence supports a more cautious outlook for the next three to six months.

However, the firm indicated that this view is not unanimous internally, as some portfolio managers maintain a more constructive stance on the short-term trajectory.

This assessment highlights a market where cycle-based frameworks, linked to Bitcoin halvings, have historically played a central role in shaping investor expectations.

If these patterns no longer hold, VanEck said, cryptocurrency markets may increasingly behave like other risk-sensitive assets in the macro environment, rather than as an independent cyclical operation.

Crypto outlook diverges from other risk-on signals

VanEck’s caution regarding Bitcoin contrasts with a more constructive view on several other asset classes heading into 2026.

The firm pointed out that clearer fiscal and monetary signals are reducing the frequency of surprises that move the market, creating an environment where investors can take risks selectively rather than maintaining a defensive stance.

This backdrop supports opportunities in areas such as artificial intelligence, private credit, gold, and certain emerging markets, even as short-term signals for cryptocurrencies remain mixed.

VanEck said that the breakdown of the Bitcoin cycle complicates timing decisions for investors relying on historical analogies, especially for those expecting a predictable rebound after the halving.

Instead, cryptocurrency performance may increasingly be driven by liquidity conditions, regulatory developments, and broader risk sentiment.

AI and related topics re-evaluate after 2025 volatility

Outside the crypto sphere, VanEck noted that the strong sell-off of certain AI-related stocks at the end of last year has adjusted valuations to more attractive levels.

The firm indicated that the correction occurred even as demand for computing capacity, AI infrastructure, and productivity gains remained solid, improving the risk-return profile for medium-term investors.

Related themes, including the nuclear sector linked to AI-driven electricity demand, also revalued significantly in the second half of 2025. VanEck stated that these adjustments reduced excesses without weakening the long-term investment thesis.

Less policy shocks expected in 2026

VanEck attributed much of its overall more risk-tolerant stance to increased visibility on fiscal and monetary policy.

Although U.S. deficits remain high, the firm noted they are decreasing as a percentage of GDP compared to pandemic-era highs, helping to stabilize long-term interest rates.

On monetary policy, VanEck cited recent comments describing current interest rate levels as “normal.”

The firm indicated that this framework suggests markets should expect stable policy and moderate adjustments rather than aggressive or destabilizing rate cuts.

According to VanEck, this increased clarity reduces tail risks and allows investors to focus more on fundamentals than on policy surprises.

Gold and income assets regain appeal

VanEck reiterated its constructive stance on gold, describing the metal as an increasingly relevant global monetary asset amid sustained demand from central banks and a gradual transition toward a less dollar-centric world.

Although gold appears technically extended, the firm noted that pullbacks should be viewed as opportunities rather than signs of weakening demand.

The firm also indicated that business development companies faced a tough 2025 but now offer more attractive yields and valuations after credit fears were largely priced in.

Management companies linked to the sector are trading at levels VanEck described as more reasonable relative to their long-term earnings capacity.