Behind Bitcoin surpassing $95,000: Block trades are booming, but futures are still "faking out"

【Chain Wen】 Recently, Bitcoin finally broke through the $95,000 mark. After falling below this level in mid-November, it has been oscillating at low levels for nearly two months. This time, it has truly broken out. Ethereum’s gains look significant, but its trend isn’t as decisive as BTC’s; it’s still circling around $3,400.

From the trading data, the attitude is very clear—the market’s money is all pouring into Bitcoin. Large transactions reached $1.7 billion, accounting for over 40% of the total daily volume. Ethereum’s contrast is obvious, with large trades only $130 million, making up just 20%. The spot market is clearly competing, with strong bullish sentiment.

However, looking at the futures market, it’s not as exciting. Trading volume hasn’t increased significantly, and the implied volatility (IV) for key maturities hasn’t rebounded sharply. The derivatives market hasn’t yet formed a structurally bullish outlook. To put it simply, the current trading activity is more of a “reflective” response to the sudden surge, not a well-thought-out long-term bullish position. The long-term mindset has not yet shifted to a bull.