#美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 US December CPI data released, with year-over-year growth fixed at 2.7%, and core CPI also remaining at this level. At first glance, it meets the official expectations, but economists have sensed something unusual—the true significance of this data warrants scrutiny after the statistical gap caused by the government shutdown last month has been filled.

Specifically, December CPI was 2.7% YoY and 0.3% MoM; core CPI also stood at 2.7% YoY and 0.3% MoM, both showing a month-over-month increase. On the surface, this is good news, but it actually hints that inflationary pressures have not truly dissipated, and the situation of exceeding the Fed’s 2% target continues.

The most direct signal from this data is that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision at the end of January is essentially locked in to not cut rates. The failure of rate cut expectations immediately triggered a market re-pricing.

Gold experienced a rollercoaster, initially falling then rising, ultimately stabilizing at the historic high of $4600. Central banks worldwide continue to increase gold purchases, and safe-haven funds are flowing in steadily, making this bull market quite solid. US stock futures show remarkable resilience, with market focus shifting from inflation concerns to earnings season performance. The AI industry chain is leading the way, and cyclical sectors are also gearing up under the guise of moderate inflation. The US dollar index has slightly rebounded, stabilizing in the 98-99 range, with short-term interest rate differentials supporting the exchange rate.

However, it is worth noting that signals of Trump’s intervention in Fed policy have already planted seeds, which could exert medium- to long-term pressure on the dollar’s credibility. How much of the data correction after the shutdown actually masks the real economic situation? How much of this CPI report is inflated? The market is voting with prices. Can gold break through $4600 and reach new highs? The answers to these questions depend on the market performance in the coming weeks.