#密码资产动态追踪 ETH yesterday early morning broke through to $3398, but now the market is at a crossroads. Whether this wave can continue upward depends entirely on whether it can hold the key levels next.

**What is the current situation**

Since early 2026, Ethereum has been fluctuating mainly between 3000 and 3350. The high of 3398 in the early morning has already hit the ceiling of this range. In the short term, the 4-hour chart has shown overbought signals, indicating potential for a pullback. However, from another perspective, the ETH reserves on exchanges are decreasing, suggesting that selling pressure might not be as fierce.

**Two possibilities, two plans**

**Scenario 1: Breakout fails, price is pushed back near 3350**

This indicates that the resistance above is still quite strong. At this point, consider shorting in stages within the 3300-3350 zone, targeting the support levels at 3150 and 3050. But risk management is crucial—stop-loss must be placed above 3400. If the price really drops to the strong support zone of 3000-3050 and stabilizes, then it’s time to close short positions and prepare to go long.

**Scenario 2: Successful breakout, stabilizing above 3350**

At this point, you can go long with a small position or wait for a pullback to 3350 to confirm support before entering. The initial target is the previous high of 3447, then above that is the 200-day moving average at 3636. Place stop-loss for longs below 3300; the biggest risk in trend-following is not having a stop-loss.

**A few bottom lines for risk control**

Now is a time when volatility may increase, so light positions are the basic approach—risk per trade should not exceed 5% of your capital. Whether going long or short, stop-losses must be set in advance and strictly executed. Also, don’t just focus on Ethereum; BTC’s movements and the performance of US stocks(, especially the Russell 2000 index), will influence the entire market. Additionally, keep an eye on ETF fund flows; if there is a continuous net inflow, that’s a bullish signal.