Recently looked at the trend of XMR. Comparing it to two small coins I’ve been tracking over the past three months, their charts are almost identical. Let me share my personal experience—my first time chasing this kind of movement, I got caught very badly, dropping from a high point straight to the bottom; the second time, I simply shorted and actually made a profit. So this time, when I looked at XMR, I kept asking myself: the market generally bearish on this coin’s fundamentals, bubble theories everywhere, but the trend keeps repeating the same rhythm—is this a coincidence or a necessity?

From a technical perspective, if this logic holds, the process should be like this: the first wave, within 24 hours, no more than 48 hours, the price will touch the middle band of the daily chart near the 550 range; the second wave will directly move downward, targeting the 2-3 level; the final wave will break through to the lower band of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, which is the ultimate bottoming position.

There’s also a detail—this coin’s double top pattern is extremely obvious and quite high. Once it breaks downward, the decline will be quite fierce. Based on this judgment, my expectation is: within 48 hours, there will be some movement around 550, and within 72 hours, it should fall into the 500-300 range. Of course, the market will always have surprises, but from a probability perspective, it’s worth paying attention to the subsequent performance.