SPX6900 faces the "no rescue" effect of the meme coin segment - Is recovery possible?

Over the past 24 hours, SPX6900 (SPX) has decreased by 4.16%, currently trading around $0.57 with a circulating market cap of $528.99M. Meanwhile, the overall meme coin market has only declined by 6.8%, indicating that SPX is experiencing selling pressure stronger than the industry average. Notably, not all meme coins are in trouble—PUMP is up 2.53%, while USELESS has dropped 8.77%. This situation reflects a harsh reality: not all meme coins have recovery potential, and SPX needs to prove itself.

Technical signals suggest risk but also show signs of optimism

SPX is in a downtrend, but the $0.44 USD level remains an important support zone—this was the bottom on October 10 and has previously triggered short-term recoveries. Currently, the price is trading above this level, indicating buyers are still in a decent position.

Encouragingly, the MACD indicator is showing signs of reversal. The signal line is beginning to turn upward, while selling momentum is clearly waning. Open interest (OI) has increased from $8 million to $11.47 million USD, which is a positive signal. The divergence between falling price action and rising OI is often considered a precursor to a bullish reversal.

However, caution is warranted: if SPX breaks below $0.44, the decline could accelerate. Conversely, if this zone holds, the initial recovery target is $0.75 USD—a previous resistance level that has been tested three times and triggered selling pressure.

On-chain data reveal conflicting trader behaviors

According to CryptoQuant data, the overall picture is quite alarming. The CVD index for both spot and derivatives markets has maintained an upward trend since early December. Large traders and institutional players remain optimistic.

However, retail traders are behaving quite differently. Their activity remains neutral, continuing to participate when meme coin prices are high—an approach unlikely to be profitable. This indicates retail investor sentiment is still very much “continuing” to grow on meme coin pathways.

This contradiction between the signals from big players and the behavior of small traders presents a challenge for SPX—even with good technical support.

Sector-wide pressure pushes SPX into a difficult position

Perhaps the deepest reason for this situation is the overall weakening of the entire meme coin segment. According to CoinGecko, the meme coin market cap has fallen from a peak of $150 billion to around $43 billion. This 71% decline is not temporary but reflects a profound shift in investor psychology and behavior.

Furthermore, even “giant” names like Dogecoin (DOGE)—which now accounts for only 0.68% of the market share—are facing fierce competition from hundreds of new meme coins. The market is saturated. Investor liquidity tends to concentrate on newer projects with more compelling “stories,” rather than old meme coins.

SPX’s only advantage is that it has become an index, a symbol within the segment. But is that enough to withstand the overall capital flow?

Conclusion

SPX6900 stands at a crossroads: maintaining technical support at $0.44 and showing initial reversal signals, but under pressure from the weakening meme coin sector. In the current “meme dead-end” environment, SPX’s recovery depends not only on itself but also on whether the industry can reverse its downward trend. In the short term, a rebound to $0.75 is possible, but in the long run, SPX will need a new story—not just as a meme coin index.