#CryptoMarketWatch

HBAR Price Holds on $0.102 Support: Bearish Indicators Create Risk.

HBAR price is trying to stabilize but is losing momentum. The token has risen by approximately 7% since January 20th, but remains almost 8% behind in the last seven days. More importantly: the structure supporting an upward breakout is beginning to weaken due to deeper dynamics.

The W-shaped recovery pattern is still valid for now. However, capital flows, investor sentiment, and whale activity are no longer showing the necessary convergence for a strong upward move.

Weak Capital Flows Create Early Doubts in Breakout Structure

HBAR price is still trading within a W-shaped pattern on the daily chart. This pattern forms when the price makes two similar lows, indicating that buyers have entered the market twice at the same level. If HBAR price surpasses the $0.135 level above the neckline, this breakout theory may hold.

The critical question lies in the developments underlying this model.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has turned downwards. The CMF tracks whether large capital (institutions, ETFs, whales) is entering an asset based on price and volume data. During the uptrend, the CMF briefly rose above zero, confirming new fund inflows. Now, this signal has faded.

The CMF has fallen back below zero and is putting pressure on the rising trend line that has been maintained since December. This indicates that capital outflows from HBAR have begun, but the price has not yet broken the support level.

Whale behavior also underscores the need for caution. All major investor groups held onto their token holdings but did not make significant purchases during the decline. Generally, whales accumulate during weakness when they expect a strong breakout.

This hesitation points to a lack of confidence. Furthermore, if the CMF breaks below the trendline, we could see a new wave of whale outflows.

Dip Buying Maintained the $0.102 Level, But Investor Sentiment Rapidly Declined

Although capital flow has weakened, the HBAR price has not yet experienced a significant breakout. This is due to buying activity during dips.

The Money Flow Index (MFI) is generally considered an indicator of dip buying. Since the end of December, the MFI has been climbing upwards while the price has declined. The MFI measures buying and selling pressure in terms of both price and volume. This positive divergence indicates that buyers are stepping in during dips rather than panic selling. This behavior also explains the repeated protection of the $0.102 support level.

However, buying at the bottom alone cannot sustain the breakout if confidence is undermined. Things get especially difficult if Hedera whales don't emerge as buyers during these dips.

Market sentiment has plummeted. Since January 19th, positive investor sentiment has fallen from around 29 to 1.5. That's a drop of over 94% in just a few days. Moreover, this is the lowest level in the last month.

This is significant because the impact of sentiment on price was clearly seen at the beginning of this month. Between January 6th and 12th, positive sentiment fell from 20.8 to 10.4. During the same period, the HBAR price also dropped from $0.132 to $0.114, a loss of approximately 14%.

The current loss of sentiment is much more severe than before. If this relationship holds true, price pressure could suddenly increase with the withdrawal of bottom investors or with outflows from the CMF overshadowing this support. Furthermore, indifferent whales could use this negative sentiment as an excuse for a "dump."

Price Levels That Will Determine Story's Fate in HBAR

Now everything will unfold within a narrowing range.

As long as the HBAR price holds above the $0.102 level at the daily close, the W formation technically remains valid. However, if this level is clearly broken downwards, the structure is disrupted, and a drop to the $0.094 region becomes a risk. If sales accelerate, $0.073 becomes a realistic target on the negative side.

For an upward move, the situation needs to change. The CMF needs to reclaim its zero line, investor sentiment needs to recover, and the price needs to break above the $0.118-$0.124 range. Unless these criteria are met, the $0.135 neckline target will remain a distant dream, and hopes for a potential 31% price increase will be dashed.

Currently, the HBAR price is holding firm. However, the breakout narrative is weakening. If capital outflows continue and the fragile market sentiment persists, the $0.102 level will cease to be support and become a final test.