Is the crypto market reaching a critical turning point? DWF founder reveals bottom signals and a wave of mergers and acquisitions

Bitcoin continued its volatility into February 2026. According to the latest data from the Gate platform on February 6, its price dropped 6.3% within 24 hours, trading around the $66,000 range. Meanwhile, a key on-chain indicator—the Bitcoin profit and loss holdings—is converging, a pattern that has historically appeared precisely at major market lows.

Professional investors have not exited the market. Andrei Grachev, founding partner of DWF Labs, observed that although retail trading has nearly stalled, “mergers and acquisitions behind the scenes are very active,” with many revenue-generating companies planning to go public.

Market Bottom Analysis: Technical Indicators and Market Sentiment Signals Cross

The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant correction early in 2026. Bitcoin retreated from a high of about $126,000 last year, testing the $60,000 support level at times, down roughly 40% from its peak.

On the Gate platform, as of February 6, Bitcoin’s 24-hour low was $59,800, with market sentiment marked as “Extreme Fear.”

Key on-chain data offers deeper insights. According to Glassnode’s metrics, currently 11.1 million Bitcoins are in profit, while 8.9 million are in loss. When these two figures converge, history often shows that the market has bottomed.

This pattern has appeared precisely at the cycle lows of November 2022 (post-FTX collapse), March 2020 (COVID-19 shock), and in the bottoms of 2015 and 2019. If the current cost basis levels are converging, it may indicate spot prices are approaching the $60,000 region.

Market Insights from DWF Founder: Virtual Bottom and Capital Flows

In a recent presentation, Andrei Grachev, founding partner of DWF Labs, shared his core judgment on the current market: “I believe the crypto market is now close to the bottom, with about 15% volatility still possible around Bitcoin prices.”

He explained that a “virtual bottom” has formed: “Now, all the Bitcoin that can be sold has already been sold… I’m not just talking about altcoins, but Bitcoin too.”

Market capital flows are showing clear divergence. Grachev pointed out that while professional investors are still actively deploying funds into real-world assets and projects with “grand visions,” the inflow of funds directly buying spot assets has almost halted.

This divergence reveals different strategies among market participants. Investors holding cash can trade under very favorable conditions, while retail funds are mostly concentrated on speculative platforms like Pump Fun.

M&A Under Currents: Industry Consolidation and Value Discovery

Beneath the surface of market calm, a wave of mergers and acquisitions is surging. Grachev explicitly stated: “Behind the scenes, M&A activity is very active, with many projects and companies being acquired.”

This phenomenon reflects the natural evolution of the crypto industry lifecycle. As the market adjusts, the prices of quality assets become more reasonable, and professional institutions with cash reserves and long-term visions see strategic acquisition opportunities.

Some companies with at least some revenue are even planning to go public. This transition from private to public markets indicates that the crypto industry is gradually integrating with traditional finance, and valuation systems are becoming more mature.

The uptick in M&A activity is often a leading indicator of market bottoms. It suggests insiders believe asset prices have reached or are close to fair value, and through consolidation, they can create synergies and prepare for the next growth cycle.

Current Market Status: Data, Prices, and Future Catalysts

As of February 6, the overall crypto market remains in consolidation. On the Gate platform, Bitcoin’s market cap is $1.3 trillion, with a market share of 58.3%.

Ethereum’s performance also reflects overall market sentiment. According to Bitget data, Ethereum’s current price is $1,945.47, down 6.64% in 24 hours. Short-term forecasts suggest Ethereum could reach $1,921.78 on February 7 and $1,922.85 on February 11.

Derivatives market data offers another perspective. The total notional open interest of all crypto futures has fallen to $105.9 billion, the lowest since April last year. In the past 24 hours, $679 million worth of crypto futures positions were liquidated.

Regarding future catalysts, Grachev believes “the crypto market is quite mature,” and growth will not come solely from a single capital flow. He expects institutional participation through structured products, while consumer-grade tools will quietly grow their user base, such as Xiaomi’s move to pre-install crypto wallets on every new smartphone.

Investment Strategy Considerations: How to Position in the Current Market Environment

Facing potential market turning points, investors need to think carefully about their strategies. Grachev recommends focusing on projects that “have real business and business expansion,” as these will be naturally driven upward by future market growth.

He notes that most altcoins will rise after a bear market, but only projects with genuine products and users can sustain growth. “Tokens should enhance the product, not be the product itself.”

From a risk management perspective, Grachev points out that pure market-making profits are now very thin; the old model of just providing liquidity and reporting is over. Today’s top market makers are full-stack partners supporting market entry strategies, user acquisition, partnerships, and more.

For the long-term outlook, many analysts remain optimistic. Murad listed 116 bullish reasons, believing Bitcoin could reach $150,000 to $200,000 by 2026. Grachev also expects new all-time highs to occur in the first half of 2026.

Future Outlook

Market sentiment shifts often occur at the most pessimistic moments. The historic convergence of Bitcoin profit and loss holdings is sending faint signals, while the repeated testing of the $66,000 zone on the Gate platform is becoming the frontline of bulls and bears battling.

As retail trading volume surges into speculative platforms, professional merger and acquisition funds are quietly positioning behind the scenes in the crypto world. Some companies with at least some revenue are planning to go public, and DWF founder Andrei Grachev believes the market is near a “virtual bottom.”

With institutional capital potentially re-entering after January and regulatory frameworks gradually clarifying, investors who remain patient and accumulate quality assets near current prices may be at the best starting point for a new cycle.