The Investment Cycle Theory Seen Through the Necessity of Ying Zheng — How to Approach Stocks Like Moutai

Recently, regarding the frequently discussed stock in investment comment sections—Kweichow Moutai—many people are seeking opinions. There is ongoing debate about the possibility of Moutai, currently around 1,500 yuan, rising to 2,600 yuan. However, what we should consider here is not merely the direction of the stock price, but the underlying issue of timing and choice behind investment decisions.

History as a Massive System That Creates Heroes—The Necessity Symbolized by Ying Zheng

Ying Zheng, who unified China in ancient times, has been remembered as a great figure in history. But an intriguing question arises: do heroes create the era, or does the era produce heroes?

The answer is the latter. The vast system of history inevitably produces individuals like Ying Zheng and compels them to fulfill their missions. Even if someone beyond time and space were to erase Ying Zheng, the outcome would remain unchanged. The historical necessity of unification persists, flowing like water, seeking new bearers. It could be his brother Cheng Jiao, or someone else entirely.

The same logic applies to the world of investment. Even if the Moutai brand disappears, another high-proof alcoholic beverage will continue to impact the blood vessels of middle-aged people. This is not a matter of choice but an inevitable trend of the times.

Long-term Relationships with Cyclical Friends—Resisting Short-term Temptations

The difficulty of investing lies in the cost of time. In a modern world overflowing with golden opportunities and countless traps, holding onto long-term stocks involves high risk—potentially missing out on more attractive emerging sectors.

Renowned investor Duan Yongping once said: young people do not drink alcohol because the time has not yet come. This is not merely about consumption habits but points to generational inevitability.

Compared to the relentless competition among companies like Tencent, ByteDance, and Alibaba, Moutai is a cyclical friend. These tech giants compete fiercely in the short term, but Moutai survives within its cyclical demand patterns.

A key insight is that those who run the fastest often disappear midway, while those who quietly lie in wait within cycles tend to ultimately succeed. Success depends more on adapting to long-term cycles than on short-term profit chasing.

Physiological Necessity Creates Investment Opportunities—Why Moutai Will Not Disappear

Just as the human body changes with age, drinking habits also evolve. As young people develop immunity to sodas and beers, their physiological functions instinctively seek beverages with higher strength and deeper penetration. This is an inevitable trait embedded at the genetic level.

This physiological necessity guarantees the persistent demand for alcoholic beverages like Moutai. Regardless of individual choices or preferences, as long as population structures and generational shifts continue, this demand will not vanish. Just as Ying Zheng was an inevitable driver of Qin unification, Moutai is an inevitable response to the physiological needs of the middle-aged demographic.

Therefore, the intrinsic value of the Moutai stock lies not in short-term price fluctuations but in its stability within this temporal and biological necessity. For long-term investors, understanding the cycle and riding its waves ultimately leads to success.