Bitcoin Cycle: Price Analysis and Appropriate Investment Strategies

The signs of the four-year cycle in Bitcoin are now very clear, even happening faster than initially expected. This cycle still follows the familiar pattern: 2024 is the Halving year, 2025 will be a market growth phase, 2026-2027 will be correction periods, and 2028 will see the next Halving. However, the current cycle differs from previous ones: instead of a traditional Altcoin Season, we are witnessing an Altcoin Narrative—a growth pattern focused more on real-world stories and applications rather than mere speculation.

Expected Bitcoin Price Bottom in the Current Cycle

Analysis of key price milestones shows notable similarities between the previous cycle and the current one. In the last cycle, Bitcoin formed two peaks at $60K and $69K. This time, we’ve seen two corresponding peaks at $109K and $125K. After the price dropped below the 50-day moving average, Bitcoin typically fluctuated around the 50- and 100-day moving averages before continuing downward toward the 200-day moving average.

If this cycle repeats that pattern, Bitcoin’s bottom is projected to be around $50K–$60K. However, compared to the 2016 cycle, the bottom could be set near $60K. Currently, BTC is trading at $67.96K, down slightly by 0.05% over the past 24 hours, indicating we are in a consolidation phase before finalizing the bottom.

Changes in the Speed of Price Decline

A significant difference in this cycle is that Bitcoin is decreasing rapidly and sharply, rather than slowly as before. The main reason is that the previous slow decline strategy no longer effectively impacts investor psychology. When BTC drops sharply while other assets continue to rise, investors tend to shift their focus to alternative assets, creating selling pressure.

History shows this evolution: in 2018, Bitcoin declined gradually, frustrating investors. By 2022, that strategy was no longer effective; the market needed major shocks like the collapse of LUNA/UST, the recovery of 3AC, and ultimately FTX’s bankruptcy. By 2026, the market experienced a dramatic shift with an unprecedented rapid decline.

A second reason relates to the current market structure: excessive leverage and widespread participation of large institutions lead to frequent liquidations. In just the past 24 hours, nearly $2.42 billion has been liquidated, a figure that has become normal in the current phase. This shocks traditional investors participating through ETFs, as this kind of panic selling is completely different from traditional stock markets.

DCA Strategy with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana

In this market environment, Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) becomes more important than ever. The DCA frequency has been increased to three times daily, and will rise to five times if Bitcoin drops below $60K. This strategy helps buy at better prices and offset losses from previous DCA rounds.

The rationale is that when Bitcoin declines rapidly, the probability of a quick rebound is higher than during slow declines. The current allocation maintains a ratio of: BTC 60%, ETH 25%, SOL 15%. With ETH at $1.97K (+0.27%) and SOL at $84.95 (+0.41%), both show immediate responses from investors.

Altcoin Direction: From Simulation to Reality

Besides accumulating the three main coins, this period will focus on specific Altcoin directions. First, new projects in promising sectors like RWA (Real World Assets), Stablecoins, and Privacy will attract attention. Second, established projects with stable business models and ongoing support from investment funds—such as JUP or JTO—will be strong candidates.

Third, new projects capable of activating the Narrative will be closely monitored to catch early trends. In the context of the Altcoin Narrative—not Altcoin Season—projects with compelling stories and practical technology will outperform.

Maximizing Profits Across Multiple Channels

Additional profit strategies are still in place to optimize returns. Farming stablecoins with an expected APY of 15% or higher, with 80% of profits allocated to DCA funds for BTC, ETH, and SOL. All altcoins and BTC in the portfolio are also optimized for additional gains.

Trend-following strategies via Pre-Sale projects continue. Recent successful projects like BARD, MMT, MON, and FF demonstrate positive results, but thorough analysis is essential before participating. Avoid dismissing all Pre-Sales due to low-quality projects; opportunities still exist in worthy projects.

Airdrop Plans and Exploring New Trends

After suspending Airdrops throughout 2025 to focus on capturing the Narrative trend, the current market calls for a strategic adjustment. With InfoFi officially discontinued, returning to Airdrop activities combined with new trends will be the next step to maximize profits during this phase.

This Cycle as a “Sowing” Period

The 2026–2027 phase is the “sowing” period of the next cycle. Those who persist in accumulating, regularly DCA, and explore new opportunities will reap the rewards in the upcoming boom cycle. Investors should remember that only by sowing during this phase can they harvest fully during the next uptrend. Conversely, starting to sow during an uptrend often leads to unfavorable results.