UNI Short-term Fluctuations: Mining Bay Analysis of Institutional and Retail Price Battles

Uniswap governance token UNI’s recent price movements have sparked widespread market discussion. Driven by positive news of BlackRock’s BUIDL fund integrating with UniswapX, UNI experienced a short-term rapid rise. However, behind this surge lies a complex game between institutional players and retail investors. From the data, this is not simply a sustainable upward trend driven by fundamentals, but rather a carefully orchestrated “accumulation and distribution” cycle.

BlackRock’s Entry and Exit Expectations: The Truth Behind the Price from $2.8 to $4.2

According to market information, BlackRock had already begun accumulating UNI at lower prices, around $2.8. After the positive news was announced, the price quickly surged to the $4.2 range. This indicates a significant gap between institutional costs and the current market price, creating ample profit margins. The price movements before and after the news provided an ideal window for institutions to offload holdings. When retail investors see news of a well-known institution entering, they often get excited and follow suit, which conveniently provides a buyer for institutions to reduce their positions.

On-Chain Data Speaks the Truth: The Real Intent Behind Whale Transfers

Notably, before the news was released, a whale transferred out 4.39 million UNI. After the official announcement and the price increase, another whale quickly transferred 3.65 million UNI to an exchange. These on-chain transfers are highly revealing—transfers out may indicate preparation to exit at high levels, while transfers into exchanges often suggest intentions to sell. Such coordinated movements are unlikely to be coincidental and appear to be paving the way for large-scale distribution.

Technical Divergence from Fundamentals: Warning Signs Are Apparent

From a technical perspective, despite positive fundamental news, technical signals are issuing warnings. The MACD indicator has shown a death cross, with short-term moving averages crossing below long-term averages, which are classic signs of weakness. Even if the project’s fundamentals remain strong, technical divergence suggests that the short-term price could face downward pressure. This “fundamentals bullish, technicals bearish” split reflects internal market disagreement—institutions are distributing holdings while retail confidence may be waning.

Current Opportunities and Risks: Trading Points at $3.56

Based on the latest data (February 22, 2026, 10:10), UNI is trading at $3.56, down 1.49% over 24 hours. From a short-term trading perspective, $3.56 can be viewed as a support level. If the price remains above this, a moderate long position could be considered, targeting around $4.0. However, it’s crucial to note that if the price breaks below support at $3.5, the next support level would shift down to approximately $3.2.

Risk warning: The current rally is driven not by fundamental improvements but by tactical moves from institutions and news stimuli. Retail investors chasing the high should exercise caution and set strict stop-loss points. It is recommended to establish clear stop-loss levels—such as at $3.3 or more aggressively at $3.2. Additionally, close monitoring of large on-chain transfers is essential to accurately interpret institutional intentions.