February 23 Member Morning Report: Trump "Threatens" 15% Global Tariffs, US Core Inflation Surpasses Expectations

【Trump “Threatens” 15% Global Tariffs】 Last Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that Trump’s previous use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose large-scale tariffs, including “reciprocal tariffs,” was an overreach of authority and invalid. On Friday evening, just hours after the Supreme Court decision, Trump signed an executive order imposing a 10% temporary global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. Then, on Saturday, Trump announced on social media that the rate would be immediately raised to the legal maximum of 15%.

【U.S. Core Inflation Surpasses Expectations】 Data released on February 20, 2026, shows that in December, the U.S. core PCE price index (the Federal Reserve’s most preferred inflation indicator) increased by 0.4% month-over-month, higher than the market expectation of 0.3%. The year-over-year increase rose from 2.8% in November to 3.0%.

【U.S. GDP Growth Plummets】 The latest data indicates that the U.S. real GDP grew at an annualized quarterly rate of only 1.4% in Q4 2025, well below the market expectation of 3% and the previous quarter’s 4.4%.

【U.S. Gives Iran 48 Hours Final Notice】 On February 22, local time, a senior U.S. official revealed that if Iran submits a detailed nuclear agreement draft within the next 48 hours, U.S. negotiators are prepared to hold a new round of talks with Iran next Friday in Geneva. The official stated that the current diplomatic efforts might be the last opportunity for Iran before President Trump initiates large-scale joint military action with Israel. The Trump administration is awaiting Iran’s proposal.

【JPMorgan Says Most Trump Tariffs Are Borne by Domestic Companies】 JPMorgan research states that U.S. mid-sized companies have been severely impacted by tariffs, with their monthly tariff expenses increasing threefold since early 2025. American businesses and consumers bear 96% of the tariff costs. As of October last year, 43% of the tariff costs had been passed on to consumer prices, meaning most of the costs are absorbed by companies.