How The Greggs (LSE:GRG) Investment Story Is Shifting As Price Targets And Fair Value Ease

Simply Wall St

Mon, February 23, 2026 at 9:21 AM GMT+9 3 min read

In this article:

GRG.L

+0.95%

Never miss an important update on your stock portfolio and cut through the noise. Over 7 million investors trust Simply Wall St to stay informed where it matters for FREE.

Greggs has seen its central fair value estimate adjusted from £18.91 to £17.80, a trim of around 6% that reflects a more cautious stance on the shares. Recent research, including price target moves from £26.40 to £21.70 and from £21.10 to £20.60, shows analysts tweaking their views rather than rewriting the story, with some staying positive and others turning more cautious. Read on to see how you can track these shifting targets and what they might mean for your own view on Greggs.

Stay updated as the Fair Value for Greggs shifts by adding it to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our Community to discover new perspectives on Greggs.

What Wall Street Has Been Saying

🐂 Bullish Takeaways

Berenberg has trimmed its price target on Greggs from £26.40 to £21.70 but still keeps a Buy rating, which signals that, in its view, the shares continue to offer upside potential relative to the current price.

JPMorgan has reduced its target to £20.60 from £21.10 while maintaining an Overweight rating, suggesting it still sees Greggs as attractive compared with other names in its coverage.

🐻 Bearish Takeaways

Jefferies has moved to a more cautious stance with a downgrade, indicating greater concern around how the current valuation stacks up against the risks and execution needs ahead.

The sequence of target cuts from Berenberg and JPMorgan points to analysts reassessing growth and profitability assumptions, even as some still rate the shares positively.

Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives!

LSE:GRG 1-Year Stock Price Chart

We’ve flagged 3 risks for Greggs. See which could impact your investment.

How This Changes the Fair Value For Greggs

Fair value central estimate trimmed from £18.91 to £17.80, a reduction of around 6%.

Revenue growth assumption eased from 7.37% to 6.96%.

Net profit margin moved from 5.19% to 5.05%.

Future P/E reduced from 18.91x to 18.31x.

Discount rate adjusted slightly from 9.43% to 9.42%.

Never Miss an Update: Follow The Narrative

Narratives link a company’s real world story to the assumptions behind its forecasts and fair value. They update as new data, research, and risks come through so you can see what has actually changed and why.

Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the Narrative on Greggs to stay up to date on:

Story Continues  

How new convenience formats such as drive thrus, retail parks, supermarkets and transport hubs, along with the loyalty app, are expected to support food on the go demand and incremental sales.

How value pricing, menu refreshes including healthier and plant based options, and supply chain investments are expected to support volumes and cost efficiency.

Key risks around weaker like for like volumes, cost inflation, UK concentration, climate and weather effects, and changing consumer preferences toward healthier options and supermarket meal deals.

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include GRG.L.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

Terms and Privacy Policy

Privacy Dashboard

More Info