Super Week Arrives: Trump Tariff Turmoil + Iran Situation Heat Up, Major Economic Data and NVIDIA(NVDA.US) Earnings Shake Up the Market

CryptoTimes Finance APP has learned that last week, policy factors dominated market attention. On Friday, the highly anticipated Supreme Court ruling was announced, which rejected a large-scale tariff system proposed by U.S. President Trump. Subsequently, Trump quickly signed a 10% global tariff retaliating against the Supreme Court decision, and on the 21st, he posted on social media that the “global import tariff” rate on goods imported from the U.S. would be increased from 10% to 15%. The global trade system is facing increasing challenges to stability and growth, with underlying currents constantly shifting.

Last Friday, buoyed by the Supreme Court ruling, the three major stock indices all turned higher and ultimately closed with gains. The S&P 500 rebounded, closing up 0.7%, with a weekly increase of 1.1%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is concentrated in blue-chip stocks, rose 0.5% on Friday and gained 0.3% for the week; the Nasdaq Composite, focused on tech stocks, rose 0.9% on Friday and increased 1.3% over the week.

Oil prices rose about 5.5 last week, mainly because traders had already priced in the risk of supply disruptions in the Middle East if the U.S. takes action against Iran, resulting in an approximately 11% return for this energy product this month.

Economic Data and Key Earnings Reports

This week’s economic data focus is on Friday’s Producer Price Index (PPI). With inflation stubbornly remaining above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, this data will provide investors with insights into upstream input costs.

Earlier released data on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index showed that overall prices and the “core” PCE (which excludes food and energy and is favored by the Fed) both increased by 0.4% month-over-month in December, with the rate of increase widening compared to November.

Investors will also receive consumer confidence readings from the World Federation of Large Enterprises on Tuesday, and more employment data through weekly initial and continued unemployment claims on Wednesday, as the market tries to gauge the state of the labor market. Additionally, U.S. President Trump will deliver the State of the Union address on Tuesday.

In the corporate sector, all eyes are on Nvidia (NVDA.US), whose Q4 earnings report will be released after the market closes on Wednesday. As the world’s most valuable chipmaker, this earnings report will serve as a key indicator of the AI trading environment.

The performance of Salesforce (CRM.US) on Wednesday will also provide insights into the software sector’s sell-off, which severely impacted the industry in February. Home Depot (HD.US) and Lowe’s (LOW.US), reporting on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively, will offer alternative indicators for the housing market; while Constellation Energy (CEG.US) and DTE Energy (D.US) will help deepen understanding of the U.S. power market.

Tariff Ruling Developments

Investors and the White House finally received the long-awaited ruling last Friday, though it was quickly followed by another dramatic shift from Trump. The U.S. Supreme Court, in a 6-3 vote last Friday, rejected a large part of President Trump’s tariff system, ruling that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not grant the president broad authority to impose tariffs on other countries. This dealt a blow to the government’s economic and diplomatic policies.

Minutes after the ruling was announced, the stock market reversed its initial decline during Friday’s trading session, turning slightly higher, reflecting a positive market reaction.

“Market response to the Supreme Court’s decision on Trump-era tariffs has been muted, indicating that much of this has already been priced in,” said Gina Borwin, President of Bolvin Wealth Management, in an email comment. “Since IEEPA tariffs account for about 60% of the tariffs imposed, the impact on the economy is limited.”

However, the issue of potential refunds has not been addressed. An estimate suggests that total refunds could reach as high as $175 billion. This issue will now be submitted to a trade court in Washington, D.C., but companies relying on imports may begin filing refund claims with U.S. Customs and Border Protection immediately.

At a press conference last Friday, Trump stated that as the government shifts to other measures to replace the vetoed IEEPA tariffs, the White House will implement a “10% global tariff… on top of existing normal tariffs” immediately under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.

“We will dismiss the short-term rebound caused by the Supreme Court’s ruling because the Trump administration will quickly turn to different legal grounds to implement alternative tariffs, and during this period, the fiscal deficit will further expand,” said Jeff Buchbinder, Chief Equity Strategist at LPL Financial, in an email.

“However, if lower tariffs help cool inflation, it could reinforce market expectations of a rate cut by the Fed later this year,” he added.

It is noteworthy that after the Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s large-scale tariff policy last Friday, President Trump swiftly issued a new executive order, announcing a 10% import duty on goods from all countries and regions starting February 24, 2026. One day later, he announced that this newly imposed “global import tariff” rate would be increased from 10% to 15%.

“Scale and Consequences of Iran Situation”

Oil prices, which have been steadily declining since 2025, have risen 15% since early 2026. This is largely attributed to tensions with Iran.

Over the past month, Washington and Tehran have been negotiating a new nuclear agreement aimed at limiting Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities. Trump stated last Thursday that Iran has 10 days to reach an agreement with the U.S., raising the possibility of military action.

According to reports, Trump said last Friday Eastern Time that he is considering a “preliminary limited military strike” on Iran to pressure Tehran into accepting U.S. demands on the nuclear deal. The latest developments indicate that U.S. and Iranian negotiators are expected to meet in Geneva this Thursday. Trump is inclined to carry out a preliminary strike in the coming days, with the possibility of larger-scale attacks in the following months.

Although Iran possesses the world’s third-largest proven crude oil reserves and ranks among the top ten oil-producing countries globally, the oil market’s primary concern is the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping passage through which about 20 million barrels of oil products pass daily.

Jorge Leon, Head of Geopolitical Analysis at Rystad Energy, said that if U.S. actions are limited and targeted, oil prices could spike briefly by about $10 per barrel before quickly returning to balance.

Leon added that if the U.S. shifts toward sustained military action—especially if it triggers serious Iranian retaliation, such as attacks on regional oil infrastructure—the market could see a “persistent increase of about $15 per barrel.”

“If markets start seriously pricing in the possibility of U.S. strikes on Iran in the coming weeks, the reaction will depend more on the scale and consequences of the action rather than the political narrative itself,” said Daniela Hason, an analyst at Capital, in an email.

Hason noted that even without immediate military action, “the mere long-term uncertainty is enough to sustain geopolitical risk premiums.”