Uncertainty in tariff policies clouds the market, spot gold rises above $5170, South Korean stocks open higher, oil prices decline

Asian trading session early hours, the Korea Seoul Composite Index opened 1.6% higher, while the US dollar and US stock futures both declined, as investors begin to price in higher risk premiums for US assets.

The Korea Seoul Composite Index opened 1.6% higher, S&P 500 futures fell 0.4%, and the US dollar index declined 0.2%. Due to a Japanese holiday, Asian spot market bond trading was paused, but US Treasury futures declined. Gold and silver rose, while oil prices fell, as investors assess the possibility of a nuclear agreement between the US and Iran. Asian stock market indices rose 0.5%, mainly driven by gains in major tech stocks.

According to CCTV News, after the US Supreme Court ruled on the 20th that the US government’s large-scale tariff policy was “ultra vires,” President Trump immediately issued a new executive order, announcing that starting February 24, 2026, a 10% import tariff will be levied on goods from all countries and regions. On the 21st, Trump announced that this newly imposed “global import tariff” rate would be increased from 10% to 15%. The lack of clarity in trade policy could cast a shadow over the global outlook and keep market volatility elevated.

• The Korea Seoul Composite Index extended gains to 2%. Japan’s stock market is closed for the holiday.
• USD/JPY fell 0.5% to 154.27.
• US 10-year Treasury yield slightly declined to 4.082%.
• Spot gold rose above $5,170 per ounce, up 1.3% intraday.
• Spot silver surpassed the $87 mark, currently at $87.11 per ounce, nearly a 3% increase for the day.
• WTI crude oil futures opened about 1% lower, with the decline narrowing to 0.65%, at $65.75 per barrel.

Policy Uncertainty Impacts the Dollar

Goldman Sachs strategist Kamakshya Trivedi and colleagues noted in a research report that the broad decline in the dollar may reflect a new injection of policy uncertainty caused by the ruling. “Policy uncertainty is a particularly important channel for the dollar because it can negatively impact investors and business activity. Regardless of which direction tariffs move significantly, the dollar will depreciate.”

Nick Twidale, Chief Market Analyst at AT Global Markets, said: “We have a lot of experience with Trump, and we believe he won’t back down easily. Increased uncertainty and questions about Trump’s next move overshadow any positive factors from tariff reductions and potential returns.”

Market trends in early Monday trading suggest investors are beginning to price in higher risk premiums for US assets, as US trade policy’s lack of clarity may cast a shadow over the global outlook.

Market Recap from Last Week

On Friday, the S&P 500 rose 0.7%, marking its best weekly performance since January 9, with optimism from the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling offsetting concerns over escalating US-Iran tensions. ETFs tracking emerging markets hit a record high. The US dollar fell 0.2% on Friday, trimming weekly gains to 0.6%.

The 10-year US Treasury yield rose two basis points to 4.08% amid volatile trading on Friday. Recent economic growth and inflation data were mixed, and the tariff ruling added uncertainty regarding potential budget shortfalls.

This seesaw movement highlights market ambivalence about policy prospects, as investors weigh the potential benefits of tariff reductions against risks from policy chaos.

More updates to come…

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