The worst downturn in 30 years will arrive in 2026

According to Bank of America and the Bank of Japan (BOJ), interest rates will be raised to 1.00% in April.

A 1.00% interest rate will be the first increase in 31 years for BOJ. And if you think Japan doesn’t influence the global markets, YOU ARE COMPLETELY WRONG. Additionally, the swap markets and Polymarket are forecasting about a 75% chance of rate hikes. This isn’t just about a central bank adjusting interest rates by a few basis points. It’s a matter related to the global funding system because Japan has been the center of cheap money for decades. That’s the part most people overlook. When Japan’s interest rates stay near zero, global currencies can borrow yen cheaply and buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere. This flow is very important because it’s not small. Japan is one of the largest capital exporters in the world, holding about 1.2 trillion dollars in U.S. Treasury bonds. So, when Japan’s interest rate regime changes, it doesn’t just affect Tokyo. It impacts global capital flows. Now, look at history. The last time Japan entered this interest rate zone, the entire system was under pressure. In 1994, the world was affected by the Bond Massacre, and about 1.5 trillion dollars of bond market value was wiped out. Then, in early 1995, the pressure continued to build. On April 19, 1995, the USD/JPY exchange rate hit about 79.75, a record low for the dollar. That number says a lot. Because when USD/JPY fluctuates like that, it’s not just hurting forex traders. It changes trade flows, funding costs, hedging costs, and cross-border positions. It forces parties to react. And that’s exactly what happened. Japan tried to raise interest rates, but by the end of that year, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) had to cut back. They lowered the discount rate to 0.50% in September 1995. So, the lesson is very simple. When Japan tightens monetary policy in a fragile system, the system can collapse faster than expected. And then, policymakers are forced to reverse course. Now, relate that to the present. If BOJ raises rates to 1.00% in April, it’s not just a “shock news about Japan.” It’s a direct blow to the cheap yen funding model. It means the cost of capital rises where global leverage once relied on to keep prices low. And when that happens, money doesn’t just disappear quietly. It’s pulled from somewhere. “Somewhere” is often very risky.

• U.S. bonds will be sold off
• U.S. stocks will come under pressure
• Cryptocurrency liquidity will decrease THIS IS A WARNING. Not because of “interest rate hikes.” Because the structure is changing, and when funding structures change, markets will reprice everything. People just look at the charts. But it all starts with the flow of money. Japan is one of the biggest drivers of capital flows in the system, and if that driver resets, the entire market will feel it. The market isn’t pricing in that risk yet. But they will. I’ve studied macroeconomics for 10 years and have accurately predicted most major market tops, including Bitcoin’s all-time high in October. Follow and turn on notifications. I will post alerts BEFORE they appear in the news.