A Look At Neptune Insurance Holdings (NP) Valuation After Recent Share Price Rebound

SelfRugger

2026-02-23 03:35:50

A Look At Neptune Insurance Holdings (NP) Valuation After Recent Share Price Rebound

Simply Wall St

Mon, February 23, 2026 at 12:14 PM GMT+9 3 min read

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Neptune Insurance Holdings (NP) has recently drawn investor attention after a period of mixed share performance, including a negative month and past 3 months, alongside reported annual revenue of US$147.287m and a net loss of US$25.839m.

See our latest analysis for Neptune Insurance Holdings.

At a latest share price of US$21.24, Neptune’s recent 1 day and 7 day share price returns of 3.91% and 12.44% contrast with a 23.57% year to date share price decline. This suggests recent momentum after a tougher stretch.

If this flood insurance story has caught your eye, it could be a good moment to widen your search and check out 22 top founder-led companies as potential ideas for your watchlist.

So with the shares down 23.57% year to date, trading at US$21.24 and at a reported 9% discount to one estimate of intrinsic value, is Neptune quietly on sale here, or is the market already factoring in its future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 25.1% Undervalued

Neptune’s most followed narrative points to a fair value of $28.38 per share, which sits above the latest $21.24 close and frames a fairly optimistic setup.

Broader distribution reach through record levels of active agency codes, nationwide coverage including recent entry into Alaska and deepening API integrations positions Neptune to capture growth in both mandatory and voluntary flood demand, underpinning renewal revenue and supporting the company’s targeted adjusted EBITDA margins above 60%.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what has to happen for that margin target to hold up? The narrative leans on rapid revenue expansion, rising profitability and a rich future earnings multiple. The full story connects those moving parts into one valuation case.

Result: Fair Value of $28.38 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, this story can change quickly if private flood adoption stalls or if carrier and reinsurance partners pull back on underwriting capacity.

Find out about the key risks to this Neptune Insurance Holdings narrative.

Another Angle, Same Risk Question

That 9.2% discount to our fair value and the 25.1% gap to the $28.38 narrative target both point to upside, but the current P/S of 19.9x versus 1.1x for the US Insurance industry and 1.9x for peers tells a very different story about how much optimism is already in the price. Which signal do you trust more?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Story Continues

NYSE:NP P/S Ratio as at Feb 2026

Next Steps

If this mix of optimism and concern feels familiar, take a moment to review the numbers yourself and decide where you stand, starting with 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

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_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include NP.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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